Iowa Senate Race Turns on War, Trade and Washington

Iowa’s open Senate race has grown more competitive than expected as higher energy costs, trade disputes and the war in Iran weigh on voters ahead of President Trump’s planned rally Thursday in Sioux City with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a contest NBC News classified as a toss-up, and Republicans’ Senate majority is on the line.

For Iowa farmers, the economic pressures are concrete. Diesel for Kelly Nieuwenhuis’ tractors and combines cost almost double what it had earlier in the year, according to a New York Times profile. Fertilizer prices rose as Russia’s war in Ukraine continued, while trade fights with China, Canada and Mexico depressed sales of his corn and soybeans.

Costs on the Farm

High energy prices and the U.S.-China trade war have also hit Iowa; Beijing responded by boycotting American soybeans. Nieuwenhuis, a registered Republican who farms 3,000 acres, said he spent $16,000 filling his farm’s fuel tanks in Primghar, Iowa. “Every election it comes down to the economy, and this policy is not working,” he said. “The Iran war, all the energy costs, the inflation — everything has gone up in price drastically.”

Nieuwenhuis voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 and 2020, but not in 2024. For the midterms, he plans to split his ticket: he’ll support Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, and Hinson for Senate. Iowa’s economy contracted in 2025 and recorded the country’s weakest annual growth rate, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. Polls suggested the state could flip to Democrats when voters cast ballots the following month.

Hinson has cast herself as a potential Trump ally, while also setting limits on that relationship. She initially pledged to be his “top ally” in the Senate. At a debate earlier in the month, she said she’d support him when it was “important for Iowa” but would “push back on him” when needed, regardless of who was in the White House. “If he’s going to say something that’s wrong, I’m going to challenge him on it,” she told Fox News last week. She also told NBC News she had “always worked with both sides to get things done for Iowa.”

War Policy and Senate Power

Hinson criticized Trump’s waiver of sanctions against Moscow, telling reporters, “I don’t think we need to be making any more deals with Russia.” She had also distanced herself from Trump’s handling of the war with Iran. In a post backing measures to combat high prices, including a pause on diesel exports, she wrote: “The war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.”

Hinson opposed a House resolution aimed at reining in Trump in Iran. Two other Iowa Republicans in tight races supported it. At a debate, Turek said the energy-cost situation stemmed from “this unnecessary war in Iran that Ashley Hinson voted in favor of continuing.” Hinson said she wanted an “immediate and successful end” to the war by preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon and protecting U.S. allies in the region. Asked why she opposed congressional war powers resolutions, she said, “I don’t think we need another resolution,” adding that she didn’t want the president prevented from achieving “a orderly end to this war.”

Hinson said she’d attend Thursday’s rally to welcome Trump “because I think this is a contrast election.” She asked, “Who do Iowans want at the helm?” and described herself as “a mom, a minivan-driving mom” bringing “common sense back into Washington, D.C.” She didn’t appear at a September rally featuring Vice President JD Vance.

Campaign Trail

At a Des Moines event for mothers alongside Sen. Katie Britt, Hinson described a recent five-minute call with Trump. She said she’d finished dropping off her boys and was getting ready to run an errand when “DJT” appeared on her caller ID. Trump introduced himself, she said, with the words, “Ashley, it’s your favorite president.” Hinson said he was checking in on Iowa; she thanked him for efforts to move forward on trade with China and asked about a deal for China to buy more soybeans.

Trump’s planned Sioux City rally is his second Iowa visit that year. He began campaigning for the midterms with a trip to the Des Moines area in January. At an Oval Office event the previous month, where Hinson was present, he announced plans for what he called the largest steel plant in U.S. history to be built in Iowa and pledged to visit for a “great rally” to help elect Republican candidates.

Competitive races for governor and the House are also on Iowa’s ballot. Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn are competing to succeed Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds, who isn’t seeking re-election. In the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Christina Bohannan faces Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks; in the 3rd, Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott faces Republican Rep. Zach Nunn. Trump held a rally in Pendleton, South Carolina, on October 21, where he urged support for Republican candidates and made economic and policy claims, including claims about investment, inflation and border crossings.