President Donald Trump went to Alabama and Ohio over the weekend to shore up Republicans in states the party expected to hold. He told Deep South voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” The president had to make that pitch in these places, and that says plenty about the map four weeks before Election Day.
Trump described an unprecedented “golden age” that he says he created. He promised “unbelievable progress” and “new levels of greatness.” In Ohio, which he carried by 11 points in 2024, the Senate race remained too close to call.
The Price Problem
The White House announced a $90 payment for around 20 million seniors enrolled in Medicare Part B. Last month, Trump also promised every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterms. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat, dismissed the offers on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “People can’t afford their lives,” he said, calling the payments “trying to buy votes.”
The numbers behind Kelly’s argument are hard for Republicans to ignore. A CBS News poll found 70% of voters said Trump’s policies were pushing prices up. An AP/NORC poll found 69% of adults said his handling of the cost of living was worse than expected, while a Quinnipiac University poll found 62% opposed his handling of the economy. Trump’s approval stood at 38.5% in a Decision Desk HQ polling average on Sunday morning.
GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana didn’t hedge. Cost of living, he said, is the biggest election issue. “We have to tell the American people the truth.” On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he added, “we (keep) telling them not to believe their own lying checkbooks.”
The White House Pushes Back
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” that reports of deep economic pessimism were a “classic Democrat move.” He blamed high grocery and food prices on former President Joe Biden. He also called Friday’s government report of 29,000 jobs created in September an outlier.
On The Hill, Hassett argued that spending data doesn’t match the gloom. “I just don’t buy it,” he said. If consumers weren’t spending, consumption data would show it. “But, in fact, the retailers are doing well.”
Voters appear unpersuaded. An AP/NORC survey found 65% said the president’s policies were behind high prices, and more than half said the national economy and the country overall were worse off since he returned to the White House.
A Shrinking Map
New York Times/Siena polls published Saturday showed Democrats leading in Republican-held Senate contests in Alaska and Texas. No clear leader emerged in Ohio, Kansas or Iowa. Trump’s economic approval was at or below 40% in each of those states, and roughly half of voters wanted a candidate who would check him. A GOP super PAC paused spending Friday on a North Carolina seat where Michael Whatley trailed.
Latino voters, a group Trump gained ground with in 2024, are shifting. An NBC/Telemundo poll released Sunday found them favoring Democrats winning Congress by 24 points. Just 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living. The White House’s deportation campaign faced a backlash.
Then there’s energy. The Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-industry waterway. AAA said gasoline had consistently averaged more than $4 a gallon during the war. Regular averaged $4.37 on Sunday morning, with few signs prices would fall before November 2. Republicans also face questions over tariffs.
Trump said pollsters understate MAGA support. The report noted that sentiment could change and key races could tighten.
Why This Matters:
The stakes go beyond a single election night. Democrats need a few gains to retake the House, where Republicans hold 219 seats, including one independent who caucuses with them, to Democrats’ 214. They need a net gain of four in the Senate. Control of both chambers would likely bring investigations of the White House and Trump family finances. It could also set up a Supreme Court fight, since Justice Samuel Alito told CBS News he now considers retirement every term.
For voters and markets, the immediate concern is simpler. Prices, fuel costs and tariffs weigh on households, and one-time payments don’t address why they’re paying more. Whether the party in power can answer that question is what Republicans will find out in four weeks.