Republicans are facing competitive midterm races in states they expected to hold, as polls show Democrats leading or close and voters worry about prices. In Ohio, where President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024, the Senate race was too close to call. Trump campaigned in Alabama and Ohio, urging Deep South voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
Prices and the Election Stakes
The White House announced a $90 payment for around 20 million seniors enrolled in Medicare Part B. Trump also promised every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterms. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly called those promised payments “trying to buy votes” and said, “People can’t afford their lives.”
Cost of living is central to the contest. A CBS News poll found 70% of voters said Trump’s policies were pushing prices up; 56% attributed the current economy to his policies and 20% to Biden. An AP/NORC poll found 69% of adults said Trump’s handling of the cost of living was worse than expected. A Quinnipiac University poll found 62% opposed his handling of the economy. Another Associated Press/NORC Research Center survey found 65% said the president’s policies were behind high prices.
Regular gasoline averaged $4.37 a gallon on Sunday morning, according to AAA, which said U.S. gasoline had consistently averaged more than $4 during the Iran war. The war closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-industry waterway. High gasoline and diesel prices pose a challenge for Republicans, with few signs fuel costs will fall before November 2.
Polls Test Republican Strength
New York Times/Siena polls published Saturday showed Democrats leading in contests for Republican-held Senate seats in Alaska and Texas. No candidate had a clear lead in Ohio, Kansas and Iowa. Trump’s approval rating on the economy was at or below 40% in each state, and roughly half of surveyed voters wanted a candidate who would check Trump.
The Senate race could shape a future Supreme Court nomination fight. Conservative Justice Samuel Alito told CBS News he now considers retirement every term. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate. In the House, Democrats have 214 seats to Republicans’ 219, including one independent who caucuses with the majority; Democrats need a few gains to retake it.
A new NBC/Telemundo poll released Sunday found Latino voters favored Democrats winning Congress by 24 points. Twenty-seven percent approved of Trump’s overall job performance, and 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living. Trump made gains across Latino communities in 2024, but the White House’s deportation campaign drew a backlash, according to the report.
Campaign Claims and Party Responses
Trump described an unprecedented “golden age” that he says he created, and promised “unbelievable progress” and “new levels of greatness.” In Ohio, he said, “We’re going to win big, and we’re going to shove it up their ass.” He also said pollsters understate MAGA support and voter sentiment could change in the final weeks.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, called reports of deep economic pessimism a “classic Democrat move.” He blamed high grocery and food prices on former President Joe Biden and called the September report of 29,000 jobs created an outlier. On The Hill, Hassett said, “I just don’t buy it,” adding that retailers were doing well.
GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana called the cost of living the biggest election issue. “We have to tell the American people the truth,” he said, adding that people felt “anger” or “deep melancholy.” Trump’s overall approval rating stood at 38.5% in a Decision Desk HQ polling average on Sunday morning. Democrats are seeking majorities in both chambers, which they’d likely use to investigate the White House and Trump family finances.