President Trump told an Ohio rally crowd Saturday that Republicans will “win big” in next month’s midterm elections if his supporters show up. On Sunday morning, his approval rating stood at 38.5 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ.
“You got to get out and vote. You got to get out. You got to vote for these guys,” Trump said. He kept pressing the point. “Just get out and vote. If you do that, we’re gonna win and we’re gonna win big and we’re gonna shove it up their a–,” he added.
The turnout appeal comes as Republicans face difficult ground. Trump’s approval rating is falling, the war in Iran is unpopular, Democrats have made recent polling gains, and voters are worried about the economy.
The Numbers Behind the Rally
Decision Desk HQ put Trump’s disapproval at 59.1 percent. That’s more than 20 points above his approval figure.
The Iran war has reached its seven-month mark. The conflict is unpopular, and it’s one of the pressures Republicans face in the final weeks of the campaign.
A Quinnipiac University poll offers more detail. It found that 51 percent of registered voters wanted Democrats to win a House majority if Election Day were that day. Thirty-nine percent wanted Republicans to take the chamber. That’s a 12-point gap.
The same poll found that 62 percent of voters opposed Trump’s handling of the economy. Another 62 percent opposed his handling of foreign policy. Those are two areas where the president’s decisions affect household budgets and, in Iran’s case, questions of war and national security.
What Democrats See
Recent polls show Democrats performing well in Senate battlegrounds. They also show Democrats competing in states that may lean more right. That’s fueled optimism in the party that it could take both chambers of Congress.
Control of Congress would give Democrats the power to oversee the administration and shape federal policy on the issues voters rate poorly in polling: the economy and the war in Iran. The source material doesn’t detail what either party would do with a majority. It does show that voters say they’re unhappy with the current direction on both fronts, by wide margins.
Trump’s rally message was simple and aimed at his base. Turnout, he said, is the whole game. The polls suggest the broader electorate has its own view of how the past months have gone.
Why This Matters:
Midterm elections are the main way voters hold a president and his party accountable between presidential contests. This year, polls show majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of both the economy and foreign policy, as the war in Iran enters its seventh month. Those aren’t abstract issues. Economic policy affects what families pay and earn, while a long war carries costs for people who serve and for taxpayers. At the rally, Trump told supporters to vote. The polls tell a different story about what many voters want, and a 12-point Democratic edge in the Quinnipiac House question suggests the outcome will depend on whether those preferences translate into votes on Election Day.