Donald Trump said the United States wouldn’t attack Iran before the November midterm elections, even as reports said the Pentagon was preparing renewed strikes and Brent crude climbed 4.5 percent. Possible military force now sits beside an election calendar and rising fuel costs. Ordinary people face the uncertainty; governments hold the weapons and control the switches.
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” His statement followed reports from several news outlets, including Axios, described as close to Trump and his aides, that the Pentagon was preparing to resume high-intensity strikes. The Atlantic reported Trump was weighing an attack before the elections.
War on the calendar
Brent, the international oil benchmark, rose 4.5 percent on Thursday amid the reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf. One tanker was hit Wednesday off Qatar, about 500 kilometres west of the Strait of Hormuz. Another came under attack off Oman, outside the waterway. The reports and attacks unfolded in a region where military decisions and energy flows are bound together, while civilians have little say in either.
Direct fighting between the United States and Iran had largely subsided, but the two countries tussled over control of oil and gas flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The United States appeared to have the upper hand there. Energy analytics firm Kpler reported that oil flows through Hormuz reached almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September. Refined petroleum product flows through the strait, however, remained roughly half of pre-war levels, and Middle Eastern refineries weren’t operating at full capacity.
The squeeze showed at US pumps. Over the previous month, diesel prices rose 14 percent to around $6 per gallon. Energy prices remained high as Trump headed into elections that would determine control of Congress. War gets described in strategic terms; at the pump, its costs arrive in dollars.
Security pacts and competing force
The US-Israeli attack on Iran had expanded into a regional war centred on Yemen. Saudi Arabia and its allies were trying to roll back the Houthis after the group launched a sweeping offensive down the Red Sea coast the previous month. Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, who have received arms and training from Iran.
Saudi Arabia activated a new joint defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan that week. Middle East Eye reported Turkey would send weapons systems, including air defence batteries, and troops to defend Saudi Arabia. Pakistan told CNN it was sending weapons to help protect the kingdom. Turkey and Pakistan sought closer ties with Saudi Arabia and aimed to show they could support a new regional security architecture amid growing doubts about the United States. They were also wary of entering a conflict with an Iranian ally positioned at an international trade chokepoint. The United States had refused to become publicly involved in fighting the Houthis.
The New York Times reported on Thursday that Pakistani warplanes were flying over Yemen and striking Houthi targets. Islamabad denied the report, saying Pakistan was providing only defensive support to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia blamed the Houthis for strikes on the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina; the Houthis denied attacking them. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saudi Arabia was supporting Yemen’s “legitimate government,” and described the pact as defensive. “Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory,” he said.
Airports, civilians and the costs of power
Saudi Arabia struck the Houthis in support of its Yemeni allies while also coming under attack. At least three people were killed on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The Houthis struck Riyadh’s airport again on Thursday; video shared on social media showed at least two drones hitting the facility. Regional officials told Middle East Eye that at least one Saudi commercial aircraft was severely damaged.
The Houthis had drawn sympathy among some in the wider Arab and Muslim world for attacks on Israel that they said were in defence of besieged Palestinians in Gaza. Those attacks followed the Hamas-led assaults on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which sparked Israel’s assault on Gaza. More than 74,000 Palestinians had been killed in what the United Nations and genocide scholars have called a genocide. Qatar, Syria and Somalia were among regional states that condemned Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia.
The attacks damaged Saudi Arabia’s image as an international business hub. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates were hit hardest after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, while Saudi Arabia was relatively spared. Lufthansa said on Thursday it would cancel all flights to Riyadh until 16 October. Across the region, officials announce defensive agreements, deny or claim strikes, and manage the fallout. People living beside military targets and trade routes don’t get to set those terms.