US President Donald Trump said the United States wouldn’t attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Reports, however, described preparations for renewed strikes, while fighting linked to the US-Israeli attack spread across the region. Brent crude rose 4.5 percent on Thursday amid the reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf.
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”
The threat of renewed strikes
The statement followed reports from several news outlets that the Pentagon was preparing to resume high-intensity strikes on Iran. Axios, described in the base article as close to Trump and his aides, reported the preparations. The Atlantic reported Trump was weighing an attack before the elections.
The midterm elections will determine control of Congress. Energy prices remained high as Trump headed into the vote, and diesel prices in the United States had risen 14 percent over the previous month to around $6 per gallon.
Iran attacked a vessel off Qatar on Wednesday, about 500 kilometres west of the Strait of Hormuz, and another off Oman outside the waterway. Direct fighting between the United States and Iran had largely subsided. The countries were tussling over control of oil and gas flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where the United States appeared to have the upper hand.
Energy analytics firm Kpler reported that oil flows through Hormuz reached almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September. Middle Eastern refineries weren’t operating at full capacity, and refined petroleum product flows through Hormuz were roughly half of pre-war levels.
Yemen at the centre of the regional war
The US-Israeli attack on Iran had expanded into a regional war centred on Yemen. Saudi Arabia and its allies were trying to roll back the Houthis after the group launched a sweeping offensive down the Red Sea coast the previous month. Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, who have received arms and training from Iran.
Saudi Arabia activated a new joint defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan that week. Middle East Eye reported Turkey would send weapons systems, including air defence batteries, and troops to defend Saudi Arabia. Pakistan told CNN it was sending weapons to help protect the kingdom.
The New York Times reported on Thursday that Pakistani warplanes were flying over Yemen and striking Houthi targets. Islamabad denied the report, saying Pakistan was providing only defensive support to Saudi Arabia. The United States had refused to become publicly involved in fighting the Houthis.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saudi Arabia was supporting Yemen’s “legitimate government” in its fight against the Houthis. “But this is a defensive agreement. When a country party to the pact comes under attack, you stand by it in its defence. This is not an offensive agreement. Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory,” Fidan said.
Palestinians caught in the regional conflict
The Houthis had drawn sympathy among some in the wider Arab and Muslim world for attacks on Israel that they said were in defence of besieged Palestinians in Gaza. Those attacks followed the Hamas-led assaults on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which sparked Israel’s assault on Gaza.
More than 74,000 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza in what the United Nations and genocide scholars have called a genocide. Qatar, Syria and Somalia were among regional states that condemned Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia was striking the Houthis in support of its Yemeni allies while also coming under attack. At least three people were killed on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The Houthis struck Riyadh’s airport again on Thursday. Video shared on social media showed at least two drones hitting the facility. Regional officials told Middle East Eye that at least one Saudi commercial aircraft was severely damaged.
The attacks damaged Saudi Arabia’s image as an international business hub. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates were hit hardest after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, while Saudi Arabia was relatively spared. Lufthansa said on Thursday it would cancel all flights to Riyadh until 16 October.