President Donald Trump announced a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stating, “It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day.” He claimed “A lot of progress has been made” during comments made Tuesday evening California time. This comes as the closure of the strait has driven up the price of fuel and basic goods globally, roiling the international economy and extracting wealth from working people worldwide.
Iranian and Omani negotiators have reportedly finalized a draft agreement. This draft awaits final approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly since the war’s opening strikes. Officials describe this as a temporary solution, linked to a U.S.-Iran agreement from June that aimed to end fighting and reopen the waterway, but ultimately collapsed. The proposed deal would allow the U.S. and Iran to resume negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Who Profits from Control
The potential agreement outlines a system where ships would enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani-controlled route. Both nations would charge “service fees” for security and preserving the maritime environment. The U.S. government, however, has expressed strong opposition to any arrangement that would see Iran levy such fees, indicating a struggle over who will extract surplus from global shipping. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed the agreement with Oman is in its “final stage,” adding that a joint statement would be issued “if certain parties do not obstruct this process,” a clear reference to the U.S.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was an open international waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas once passed. Its closure has reduced traffic to a trickle, directly impacting global supply chains and the cost of living for millions. The Trump administration had previously rejected any deal granting Iran control over the strait, underscoring the imperial struggle for dominance over critical trade routes and resource flows.
The State's Role in Managing Crisis
Trump faces mounting pressure to end an unpopular war ahead of midterm congressional elections. This political calculus, rather than a fundamental shift in policy, appears to drive the renewed push for a deal. Even as hopes for a strait agreement increased, attacks on shipping continued. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed Wednesday they fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, targeting the vessel off the Saudi port city of Yanbu. Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, a Houthi military spokesman, made the claim in a prerecorded statement, though no evidence was provided by the rebels, and Saudi Arabia offered no immediate comment.
This attack is part of a recent escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, threatening to reignite Yemen’s civil war. In July, the Houthis announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for Saudi-linked shipping. On Tuesday, an Indian-flagged commercial ship sank in the Red Sea off Yemen after an explosive-laden boat strike, with Yemeni and Indian authorities confirming the incident. Another vessel in the Red Sea reported a nearby explosion, though its crew was safe.
Ceasefires and Continued Conflict
The shaky ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah also grew more volatile Wednesday. The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning to residents of Mansouri, a southern Lebanese village, the first such warning in weeks. Israel cited Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire, which had largely held since June 20. Later, the Israeli military initiated “precise strikes” in southern Lebanon, describing them as a response to a “blatant violation.”
Lebanese and Israeli negotiators met in Rome for a second day to discuss implementing a deal for Israeli forces to withdraw from occupied areas in southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah’s disarmament. A State Department official stated Wednesday that the Rome talks ended early “due to events on the ground” but might resume Thursday. These “discussions focused on a range of political and military issues and were extremely productive,” according to the official, even as bombs fell and populations were displaced, revealing the chasm between diplomatic rhetoric and the material realities of ongoing conflict and imperial maneuvering.