President Donald Trump said Monday that newly planned talks between Washington and Tehran are the “last chance” for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation of U.S. strikes on the country.
The threat came straight from the Oval Office. No mystery there. Trump said he expects negotiations that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and create a pathway for Iran to address the United States’ concerns about its nuclear program will begin in the next day or two, while he kept the pressure on with talk of more bombing if the talks fail.
Who Holds the Gun
Trump said the first phase is opening the straits and the second phase will be “the denuclearization.” He added, “And that will take a little while.” That’s the language of empire dressed up as procedure: first the waterway, then the weapons, then whatever comes next.
He also said he decided to hold off on ordering American forces to carry out new massive strikes against Iran at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Trump said a plan was in place for U.S. forces to carry out “the biggest attack since World War II” on Sunday, but he scrapped it after hearing from key Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.
“This the last chance for them to sign a good document,” Trump said. He repeated the line again for reporters, making the ultimatum sound like a deadline handed down from above rather than a negotiation between equals.
Trump said whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking” about preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Earlier Monday, he had called Iran “unbelievably duplicitous” on social media after Iran said its meetings with Oman were focused solely on establishing a temporary route for safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the global oil trade.
“They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg,’ talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they’re only dealing with Oman,” Trump said.
The People Paying for the Power Games
Trump has threatened to escalate attacks on Iran only to edge away from those threats several times since the start of U.S. and Israel strikes on Feb. 28. He told reporters he’s showing patience out of consideration for Iranian life, saying, “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation.” He added, “Hopefully, they’ll come to their senses.”
That’s the bargain offered by the powerful: comply, or face destruction.
Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” “I think what we’re seeing here is a president who has an approach that’s just rather erratic. At this point, he’s trying to get us back to February. And I think if he could — if he had a big reset button he could hit — he would certainly take that option.”
Trump’s own record in this conflict shows the same pattern. In early April, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an announcement that came less than two hours before a deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power plants — strikes he said would mean “a whole civilization will die.” After days of dire threats, Trump announced on May 18 he was holding off on a major planned military strike because “serious negotiations” were underway, crediting Gulf allies for persuading him to show restraint. Then in June, he threatened on social media to hit Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Iran’s energy base on Kharg Island to “assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets,” only to call off the strikes in another post after claiming peace negotiations had progressed with high-level Iranian leaders.
What the Gulf Rulers Said
Trump suggested that the Saudi crown prince played a particularly important role in him turning away from escalating the fight. He spoke by phone with the de facto leader of the kingdom on Saturday before announcing he was halting strikes that he later boasted would have been one of the biggest U.S. operations since World War II.
According to a person briefed on the call who was not authorized to comment publicly and insisted on anonymity, the crown prince said escalation could have a severe impact on the global economy if Tehran responded to a new U.S. bombardment by targeting some of the United States’ Gulf allies. The person added that Saudi officials have underscored in their engagements with the Trump administration that the kingdom is in a good position to defend itself against further potential Iranian strikes — as are Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — but that Kuwait could be more vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
Trump has insisted that November’s midterm elections aren’t shaping his approach to the conflict, which has spurred unease across the global economy. About two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war with Iran has not been worthwhile, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week. That includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.
Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the debate in Washington has lost perspective on the devastation the U.S. military has inflicted on Iran since the start of the war. Still, he acknowledged that further escalating the conflict could lead to another surge in already elevated energy prices and “a lot of inflation for the American people.” Kennedy said tightening sanctions and targeting Iran’s nuclear program — rather than escalating the conflict — might be the best bet for the moment. “They’re all hellish choices,” Kennedy said. “But for the moment I’d maintain the status quo.”
The status quo, in this case, is a war managed from the top, with ordinary people left to absorb the costs in fear, prices, and the threat of more strikes while leaders trade ultimatums and call it diplomacy.