President Donald Trump declared Monday that new talks with Tehran represent Iran's “last chance” to avoid an escalation of U.S. strikes, a move made at the urging of Gulf allies whose oil profits stand to be impacted by regional instability.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, stated that negotiations would begin in the next day or two. He expects these discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address U.S. concerns about Iran's nuclear program.
“The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearization,” the Republican president said, indicating a prolonged process.
Trump revealed he decided against ordering American forces to carry out new massive strikes against Iran. This decision came at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A plan was in place for U.S. forces to execute “the biggest attack since World War II” on Sunday. He scrapped the plan, giving diplomacy more time, after hearing from key Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.
“This the last chance for them to sign a good document,” Trump reiterated, expressing his dwindling patience with Iran.
Earlier Monday, Trump criticized Iran on social media as “unbelievably duplicitous.” His ire stemmed from Iran's claim that its meetings with Oman were solely focused on establishing a temporary route for safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the global oil trade.
“They ask for a meeting, some would say ‘beg,’ talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they’re not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they’re only dealing with Oman,” Trump posted.
Trump insisted that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking” about preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
He has repeatedly threatened to escalate attacks on Iran, only to back away several times since U.S. and Israel strikes began five months ago, on Feb. 28.
Asked about his repeated grim threats before backing away, Trump claimed he was showing patience out of consideration for Iranian life. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” he said, adding, “Hopefully, they’ll come to their senses.”
Who Profits from Imperial Threats
Trump has demonstrated a pattern of bellicose threats followed by last-minute retreats, often claiming progress. Four months ago, in early April, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, announced less than two hours before a deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power plants—strikes he said would mean “a whole civilization will die.” Two months ago, on May 18, Trump announced he was holding off on a major planned military strike because “serious negotiations” were underway, crediting Gulf allies for persuading him to show restraint. In June, Trump threatened on social media to hit Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Iran’s energy base on Kharg Island to “assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets,” only to call off the strikes after claiming peace negotiations had progressed.
Trump suggested the Saudi crown prince played a particularly important role in turning him away from escalating the fight. The U.S. president spoke by phone with the de facto leader of the kingdom on Saturday before announcing he was halting strikes he later boasted would have been one of the biggest U.S. operations since World War II.
The crown prince conveyed that an escalation in fighting could severely impact the global economy if Tehran responded to a new U.S. bombardment by targeting some of the United States’ Gulf allies, according to a person briefed on the call. Saudi officials, the person added, have underscored that the kingdom is in a good position to defend itself against further potential Iranian strikes, as are fellow energy titans Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, but that Kuwait could be more vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
Trump has insisted that November’s midterm elections aren’t shaping his approach to the conflict, which has spurred unease across the global economy.
The Cost to Working People
About two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war with Iran has not been worthwhile, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week. This includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.
Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, criticized Trump's approach on CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” calling it “rather erratic.” He suggested Trump would hit a “big reset button” if he could.
Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy, a Republican, acknowledged on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the debate in Washington has lost perspective on the devastation the U.S. military has inflicted on Iran since the start of the war. He also recognized that further escalating the conflict could lead to another surge in already elevated energy prices and “a lot of inflation for the American people.” Kennedy suggested tightening sanctions and targeting Iran’s nuclear program might be the best bet for the moment, calling the choices “all hellish” but advocating to “maintain the status quo.”