Trump Threatens Mexico With Double Tariffs Over Caravans

President Donald Trump fired off a post on his own platform, Truth Social, early Thursday threatening to double tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico stops migrant caravans heading north. "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED," he wrote. The people he wants stopped are, by the count of one Chiapas state government source, about 1,500 mostly Central American migrants, many of them families, who walked out of Tapachula on Tuesday, November 10.

Who Has the Power

Trump's post sets no deadline. It names no tariff, no rate, no legal tool. No decree or order has been issued. It's a threat, pure and simple, aimed at a country whose economy is already squeezed. Mexico's real GDP grew only 0.5% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook. And Reuters reported on November 12, 2026, that the IMF cut Mexico's flexible credit line to about US$18 billion.

Mexican products have paid an extra 10% tariff under Section 301 since July 24, 2026, less than four months ago. The Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and vehicles, imposed last year, are the ones Mexico is trying to negotiate down in ongoing trade talks. No agreement had been announced at the time of writing. On July 1, 2026, the U.S. Trade Representative said "the USMCA is not renewed," yet the pact "remains in force pending resolution of these issues." Everything hangs on one man's mood.

His border czar, Tom Homan, laid out the demand on Fox News: Mexico "needs to put troops on their southern border and northern border." Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin shared the post, adding: "This illegal migrant caravan will NOT be allowed to enter our country. Full stop."

Who Gets Crushed

The people on the road are the ones paying. César Sandoval, a 47-year-old Nicaraguan who was deported from the United States earlier this year, told reporters: "There might be a light at the end of the tunnel, a way for us to get in. We believe the Democrats will help us... with God's help." Many caravan members said last week's Democratic midterm win gave them new hope.

That hope runs straight into Homan's promise. "These caravans can come to the border all they want. They're not going to be released into the United States," he said. "They're going to be turned around or prosecuted and turned around because we will charge them with a crime so they can sit in jail, serve their sentence before they're deported." He added: "we're not giving one inch on this border."

On the ground, Mexican authorities blocked a second, smaller group. Local footage showed officers lined across a road, and the migrants ran as they were surrounded. About 40 were detained, according to reports from Tapachula. The other two caravans since September were broken up before leaving Chiapas, and their members were handed temporary stay permits. "As long as Trump remains president, the deportations will not stop," said Ivan Porraz, a researcher at the College of the Southern Border. Thousands have been stranded in Tapachula by U.S. entry restrictions and deportations.

What Sheinbaum Said, and What the Numbers Say

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at her Thursday press conference that "no migrant caravan has reached the northern border" since Trump began his second term in January 2025. She said one caravan in Arriaga, Chiapas, formed with around 500 or 600 people and fewer than 100 remain. Her government, she said, won't use force against migrants, and the immigration institute and National Guard accompany them rather than repress them. "We seek a way for them to safely return to their countries," she said.

The White House itself said late last month that "illegal crossings" were at an "all-time low." A post on X attributed to Roberto Lazzeri cited a "historic 97% reduction in encounters, reaching their lowest level since 1959." Trump still wrote of an "INVASION."

The migrants say they aim first to reach Mexico City, more than 1,000 km (621 miles) away, to seek help from the federal government and protection from detention. It's a walk of at least several weeks. They're doing it together, in groups of hundreds, because alone nobody gets through.

Trump closed his post by naming the audience for his threat: Mexico, the Governor of Texas, Border Patrol and ICE. "There will be no leniency!" he wrote.