President Trump said the United States held an all-day negotiation with Iran on Tuesday, then wrapped the whole thing in the language of progress while warning he could hit Iran “really hard” if no deal is reached. That’s the machinery at work: high-level bargaining over war, trade routes and fuel prices, with ordinary people left to absorb the fallout if the men at the top can’t seal their arrangement.
Trump told reporters traveling with him in California that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come “tomorrow or the next day,” and that “a lot of progress has been made.” The AP report said Iranian and Omani negotiators had finalized a draft deal to reopen the strait and were awaiting final approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The same report said the potential deal was tied to an agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran in June that aimed at ending the fighting and reopening the waterway but ultimately collapsed.
Who Holds the Levers
The Trump administration had previously ruled out any deal that would give Iran control over the strait. That detail matters because the Strait of Hormuz isn’t some abstract diplomatic trophy. The AP report said it was an open international waterway before the war but has seen traffic reduced to a trickle. Closure of the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas once passed, has driven up the price of fuel and basic goods far beyond the region and roiled the global economy. The people paying for this standoff aren’t sitting in the negotiating rooms.
Trump is also under mounting pressure to end an unpopular war ahead of midterm congressional elections. There’s the electoral theater again: the same power structure that starts wars and strangles trade routes now wants credit for calming the mess before voters are asked to bless the next round of management.
The Cost Lands Below
The AP report said the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed Wednesday they had fired ballistic missiles toward a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, with Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree saying in a prerecorded statement that the vessel was targeted off the Saudi port city of Yanbu. He didn’t provide evidence. There was no immediate comment from Saudi Arabia. The attack was part of a recent escalation between the rebels and Saudi Arabia that threatens to reignite Yemen’s civil war.
In July, the Houthis announced they were closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that leads to the Red Sea for Saudi-linked shipping. On Tuesday, an Indian-flagged commercial ship sank in the Red Sea off Yemen after being struck by an explosive-laden boat, Yemeni and Indian authorities said. Yemen’s coast guard rescued the crew. Another vessel sailing in the Red Sea off Yemen reported a loud explosion nearby, and the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said the ship’s crew was safe. The sea lanes become battlegrounds, and the crews, coast guards and civilians get dragged into the wreckage.
Rome Talks, Ground Reality
The already shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah grew more volatile Wednesday, as the Israeli military issued an evacuation warning to residents of the southern Lebanese village of Mansouri, the first such warning in weeks. Israel said it was responding to Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire agreement, which had largely held since June 20. Later, the Israeli military said it had begun conducting “precise strikes” in southern Lebanon in response to what it described as “a blatant violation of the ceasefire” by Hezbollah.
Lebanese and Israeli negotiators met in Rome for a second day to discuss implementation of a deal under which Israeli forces are supposed to withdraw from areas they are occupying in southern Lebanon in exchange for disarmament of Hezbollah. A State Department official said Wednesday that the second day of talks in Rome had ended early “due to events on the ground” but could continue on Thursday, and said the “discussions focused on a range of political and military issues and were extremely productive.” The language is polished. The reality is occupation, evacuation warnings and strikes, with diplomats trying to package the violence as progress while the people under it wait for the next order to move, hide or bury their dead.