Donald Trump's significant gains among Latino voters in 2024 are showing signs of erosion as his second term's immigration enforcement operations and persistent affordability concerns test the durability of a coalition shift that helped deliver his election victory. Recent polling and voter interviews in Arizona's Maricopa County reveal a complex landscape where economic anxieties that drove Latinos toward Republicans now compete with concerns about enforcement tactics.
Trump secured 43% of Latino voters nationally in 2024, up from 35% in the 2020 presidential election, a shift largely attributed to concerns about the economy. Yet a Pew Research Center poll conducted in April 2026 found that among Latino Trump voters, approval of his job performance fell to 66%, down sharply from 93% at the beginning of his second term. By comparison, support among non-Latino voters dropped from 95% to 79% between February of last year and April of this year.
Immigration Enforcement Creates Friction
Trump returned to office pledging to crack down on immigration, a promise that has prompted arrest sweeps in homes, workplaces and schools, often targeting Latino migrants. An AP-NORC poll found that more than half of Latino adults report knowing someone impacted by the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement.
In Phoenix and surrounding Maricopa County, where a third of residents are Latino and one in four of them is an immigrant, voters described shifting sentiments. Sandra Ramirez said she broke from her Democrat-voting family to vote for Trump in 2024, but after watching footage of immigration officers cracking down on migrants over the past year, she concluded, "There are a lot of people who are being harassed for the color of their skin, and that's not right." She added, "I'll never go Republican again."
Albert Rodriguez, a Phoenix tattoo artist who once supported Trump, said he changed his view after seeing enforcement operations in Chicago, Minneapolis and Los Angeles. He said Trump promised to go after immigrants who were criminals, but instead Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have been "hitting the paleta man," referring to ordinary people trying to make a living from selling frozen treats. "Big time, I regret it," Rodriguez said of his 2024 vote for Trump.
Continued Support Among Some Voters
Not all Latino Trump voters are wavering. Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran in Phoenix, said he backs Trump's effort to stem crossings at the southern border. "The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. And I don't want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America," he said. While acknowledging discomfort with some images of ICE arresting people in front of their children, Martinez said he was sympathetic to ICE officers and blamed Democratic officials for not cooperating with immigration enforcement. He also cited the removal of taxes on tips and overtime as reasons for his continued support.
Guadalupe Alaffa, another Phoenix resident, blamed President Joe Biden's policies for prompting Trump's immigration crackdown. "He left that damn border wide open," Alaffa said.
Arizona's Political Landscape
The national drop in support could matter significantly in swing counties such as Maricopa, the largest battleground county in the nation. Arizona saw a slight increase in Latino support for Trump in 2024, and the state has long been a flashpoint in the immigration debate. The growing influence of Latino voters has eroded the GOP's decades-long dominance in Arizona and put the state at the center of congressional and presidential elections. Both of Arizona's senators are now Democrats, along with the top three state officials.
Winning back some of the Latinos who shifted to Trump will be crucial to the reelection prospects of Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes, all Democrats first elected in 2022.
Democrats in Maricopa County have benefited from more than a decade of political organizing among Latinos mobilizing against hard-line immigration enforcement. In 2010, the Republican-controlled Legislature passed SB1070, which required police to check the immigration status of anyone they suspected of being in the country illegally. Around the same time, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was building a national profile on the right with immigration sweeps in largely Latino neighborhoods.
Salvador Reza, a longtime activist in Phoenix who advocates for the rights of day laborers, said, "We were the lab where they implemented a lot of this with Sheriff Joe and now it's all over the United States." For over two decades, Arpaio was repeatedly elected while his department faced accusations of racially profiling Latino drivers and conducting sweeps in Latino neighborhoods and day labor areas. Deputies often stopped residents for traffic violations and turned noncitizens over to ICE, according to rights groups. In 2013, a federal judge ruled his office had illegally profiled and detained Latinos, and a 2011 Justice Department report found widespread discrimination. After losing reelection in 2016, Arpaio was convicted of criminal contempt for defying court orders and was later pardoned by Trump.
Former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the controversial 2010 bill, said the GOP is at risk of losing some of the Latinos that Trump won over. "With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don't know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican," Brewer said.
Earl Wilcox, a longtime activist and restaurant owner in Phoenix whose establishment hosted Biden in 2024 when he launched an initiative meant to rally Latino support for the Democratic ticket, said affordability issues and immigration enforcement are causing Latino support for Trump to wane. "I don't think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around," Wilcox said, "and I think it started with the raids."
Why This Matters:
The potential erosion of Latino support for Trump and Republicans represents a significant challenge for the party as it looks toward the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race. Trump's 2024 gains among Latino voters demonstrated that economic concerns could overcome traditional partisan loyalties and suggested a realignment that could reshape American politics. However, the implementation of aggressive immigration enforcement appears to be testing whether Republicans can maintain this coalition while delivering on border security promises. In Arizona, where Latino voters have already helped flip the state from reliably Republican to competitive, any reversal of 2024 gains could determine control of the Senate and influence in presidential elections. For Republicans, the challenge is balancing enforcement priorities with coalition maintenance in communities where many Latino citizens have personal connections to immigrants. For Democrats, the opportunity lies in leveraging enforcement concerns while addressing the economic anxieties that drove Latino voters away in 2024.