Aggressive immigration enforcement by the state, a key policy of the Trump administration, is eroding support among Latino voters, many of whom are workers or immigrants, despite significant gains in the 2024 election. More than half of Latino adults report knowing someone impacted by the Trump administration’s enforcement, according to an AP-NORC poll.
Polling from the Pew Research Center in April of this year shows that approval for Trump among Latino voters who backed him in 2024 has fallen to 66%, a sharp decline from 93% at the beginning of his second term. Among non-Latino voters, support fell from 95% to 79% between February of last year and April of this year.
Donald Trump secured 43% of Latino voters nationally in the 2024 election, an increase from 35% in the 2020 presidential election. This shift was attributed in part to concerns about the economy.
Upon returning to office, Trump pledged to intensify immigration crackdowns, leading to arrest sweeps in homes, workplaces, and schools, frequently targeting Latino migrants.
Sandra Ramirez, who broke from her Democrat-voting family to support Trump in 2024, stated she would “never go Republican again” after witnessing footage of immigration officers harassing people based on their skin color over the past year.
Albert Rodriguez, a Phoenix tattoo artist, expressed regret for his 2024 vote, noting that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents had been “hitting the paleta man,” referring to ordinary people attempting to earn a living, rather than solely targeting criminals as promised.
The State's Enforcement Arm
The national drop in support holds particular significance in swing counties like Maricopa, Arizona, which is the largest battleground county in the nation. One-third of Maricopa County residents are Latino, and one in four of them is an immigrant.
Arizona has long served as a flashpoint in the immigration debate, with a history of state-sanctioned harassment against Latino communities.
For over two decades, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio conducted high-profile raids in Latino neighborhoods and day labor areas, building a national profile for his hard-line enforcement.
In the sixteenth year since its passage, the Republican-controlled Legislature passed SB1070 in 2010, a law requiring police to check the immigration status of anyone suspected of being in the country illegally.
Salvador Reza, a longtime activist in Phoenix advocating for day laborers' rights, observed that Arizona was “the lab where they implemented a lot of this with Sheriff Joe and now it’s all over the United States.”
In the thirteenth year since the ruling, a federal judge determined in 2013 that Arpaio’s office had illegally profiled and detained Latinos. A 2011 Justice Department report also documented widespread discrimination within his department.
Deputies often stopped residents for minor traffic violations and subsequently turned noncitizens over to ICE, according to rights groups. Arpaio, who lost reelection in the tenth year since his defeat in 2016, was convicted of criminal contempt for defying court orders and later received a pardon from Trump.
Economic Hardship and Liberal Management
The initial shift of Latino voters toward Trump in 2024 was partly driven by economic concerns, indicating the material conditions influencing voting patterns.
Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran in Phoenix, continues to support Trump’s efforts to stem border crossings, citing the removal of taxes on tips and overtime as reasons for his backing. He expressed sympathy for ICE officers and attributed blame to Democratic officials for not cooperating with immigration enforcement.
Former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the controversial 2010 bill, suggested that the GOP risks losing some of the Latino voters Trump won, stating, “With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican.”
Earl Wilcox, a longtime activist and restaurant owner in Phoenix, confirmed that affordability issues and immigration enforcement are contributing to the waning Latino support for Trump. Wilcox’s restaurant hosted President Biden in 2024 when he launched an initiative aimed at rallying Latino support for the Democratic ticket.
Democrats in Maricopa County have historically benefited from over a decade of political organizing among Latinos mobilized against hard-line immigration enforcement. However, current Democratic officials, including Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes, all elected in 2022, face the challenge of winning back Latino voters who shifted to Trump.
Guadalupe Alaffa, another Phoenix resident, attributed Trump’s immigration crackdown to President Joe Biden’s policies, stating, “He left that damn border wide open.”