U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable approach to Middle East policy is creating openings for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to expand Ankara's regional influence, raising concerns among diplomats and human rights advocates about the erosion of international norms and the empowerment of authoritarian actors in a volatile region.
The war in Iran and a high-profile NATO summit that Ankara will host next month are giving Turkey opportunities to position itself as a central player in regional diplomacy and security arrangements. Observers note that Trump's willingness to abandon established policy frameworks has created a vacuum that Erdoğan is moving quickly to fill, with implications for civilian populations across the Middle East who have borne the brunt of authoritarian governance and regional power struggles.
Regional Power Play
U.S. President Donald Trump is making things up, according to analysts tracking his statements on Middle East policy. The interesting question is whether he knows he's making things up, lying and constructing an alternative reality, or if he believes in the reality that he is creating. This uncertainty itself has become a factor in regional calculations, as leaders like Erdoğan navigate a U.S. foreign policy landscape that appears untethered from traditional diplomatic consistency.
The war in Iran and the showy NATO summit that Ankara will host next month give Turkey an opportunity to show off its efforts to become the one dictating regional policy and creating partnership. For communities across the region—from Syrian refugees in Turkey to Kurdish populations facing Turkish military operations to Iranian civilians caught in conflict—the shift toward Turkish regional dominance carries concrete human consequences that extend beyond diplomatic maneuvering.
Obstacles Remain
However, inner and outer hurdles to Erdoğan's plans remain. Turkey's domestic economic challenges, its strained relationships with European allies over human rights concerns, and competing regional powers all constrain Ankara's ability to fully capitalize on the current moment. The gap between Erdoğan's ambitions and Turkey's capacity to deliver sustainable regional leadership remains significant.
The convergence of Trump's disruptive approach and Erdoğan's expansionist vision represents a departure from the multilateral, rules-based order that has—however imperfectly—provided some constraint on authoritarian behavior in the region. For civilian populations who have already endured years of conflict, displacement, and rights violations, the prospect of further destabilization driven by great power competition offers little hope for the peace and accountability they desperately need.
Why This Matters:
The empowerment of Turkey under Erdoğan at a moment when U.S. policy appears to lack coherent strategic direction has significant implications for human rights, civilian protection, and regional stability across the Middle East. Turkey's record on press freedom, judicial independence, and treatment of minority populations raises serious concerns about what expanded Turkish influence would mean for vulnerable communities. The NATO summit next month will test whether the alliance can maintain its stated commitment to democratic values while accommodating a member state whose domestic and regional behavior increasingly contradicts those principles. For millions of civilians from Syria to Iraq to Iran who have already paid the price of regional power struggles, the normalization of authoritarian deal-making over rules-based diplomacy threatens to deepen their insecurity. The question is not whether Erdoğan will seize this opportunity—he clearly intends to—but whether international institutions and democratic states will allow the erosion of norms that, however imperfectly enforced, have provided some measure of protection for the region's most vulnerable populations.