Prices Put Trump's Midterm Economic Pitch Under Pressure

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, while recent polls show most voters blame President Donald Trump for high prices as Republicans head toward the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The cost of living has become a liability for Republican candidates, even in states and districts that have traditionally backed the party.

Prices and polling

An AP-NORC poll found 65% of respondents blamed Trump for high prices, 61% said the economy was worse than when he took office, and 17% approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues. In a Fox News survey released Oct. 14, 29% of voters said Trump was doing a good job on the economy, down from 43% shortly after he took office.

A Pew Research Center survey released in October found 21% of Americans rated the economy good, 37% fair and 42% poor. Sixty-five percent said Trump's policies had made things worse. A report released the week before the article said consumer prices increased from a 3.4% annual rate in August to 3.7% in September. Inflation stood at 3% when Trump took office.

Trump has called the economy strong and touted tax cuts and stock market growth while campaigning for Republican candidates. At a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Oct. 10, he said, "Our first term, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, and we're blowing it away. In the real economy we are blowing it away." On Oct. 14, he said, "We're doing great." He has also said inflation was "very low" in recent months and that he was "bringing prices way down."

The AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll, conducted Sept. 8-15, found Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults increasingly disillusioned with Trump and Republicans. About one-quarter approved of Trump's overall performance, and about 2 in 10 approved of his handling of the economy. Respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on a range of issues, including the economy and health care, though views of the Democratic Party itself remained split.

Costs for farmers and candidates

Farmers face higher expenses, too. AAA said diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide on Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected net farm income would decline 2.6% this year as production expenses rose 4.5%; fuel and oil expenses were expected to climb nearly 30%.

Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow said diesel cost more than $2.50 per gallon above a year earlier. "It seems like it's coming at us from all directions," said Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau. He said economic frustration could dampen farmers' enthusiasm for voting Republican, though he didn't think that necessarily meant they'd vote for Democrats.

The economic climate has put more races in play. Democrats led the Real Clear Politics average of recent Senate polls in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, states Trump carried by double digits. Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina also appeared increasingly competitive. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. Democrats hadn't won a Kansas Senate election in 94 years.

Republican candidates have attacked some administration policies. Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican running for the Senate in Iowa, called for an end to the Iran war, saying Iowans "shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line." Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, running for the Senate in Michigan, called for an end to the conflict and the trade war with Canada: "Prices are too high and Canada is not our enemy. We need to end the tariff war — now."

Administration response

The White House and Trump allies rejected negative polling. House Speaker Mike Johnson said surveys under-sample MAGA Republicans, who distrust traditional pollsters. At a Sept. 30 event, Trump acknowledged pessimism, saying, "I've done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing. We're doing better than any country in the world economically."

The administration has put forward measures to address costs, including $500 rebate checks for Americans it said had been overcharged for Affordable Care Act health policies, $90 payments to 21 million seniors, and easing tariffs on beef imports. Trump also promised $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans retained control of Congress. Critics attacked those proposals, with some on the right alleging Trump was bribing voters.

Marc Short, who served as Trump's liaison to Congress in his first term and as former Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, said Trump had been elected to address the economy and inflation, but "he hasn't."