Farmers and Consumers Pay as Trump Defends Tariffs

Diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide on Friday, more than 70% above its level a year earlier. Farmers faced rising costs as the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected net farm income would fall 2.6% this year. Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow said diesel cost more than $2.50 per gallon above the price a year earlier. “It seems like it's coming at us from all directions,” said Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau.

Who Pays

Farmers also faced higher fertilizer and seed costs amid refinery constraints and supply disruptions tied to the war with Iran. In its September forecast, the USDA projected production expenses would rise 4.5%, with fuel and oil expenses expected to increase nearly 30%.

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Inflation stood at 3% when Trump took office. Gas prices climbed 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the overall price increase, and were up 34.2% for the year.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found Trump’s tariffs had “economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices.” Their estimate found the levies raised the cost of 67 goods by 2.9% through February.

The war with Iran disrupted Middle East energy exports and sent fuel prices higher. Inflation had fallen to 2.4% before the U.S. invasion of Iran at the end of February; it stayed elevated afterward and never fell below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target during Trump’s second term.

A Pew Research Center survey released in October found that 21% of Americans rated the economy good, 37% fair and 42% poor. Sixty-five percent said Trump’s policies had made things worse. In a recent AP-NORC poll, 17% approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, 65% blamed him for high prices and 61% said the economy was worse than when he took office.

The State’s Economic Choices

Trump has defended tariffs and the decision to attack Iran at rallies while proposing payments and policy changes to address costs. At the GOP midterm convention in Dallas, he promised $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans retained control of Congress. He later announced $500 rebate checks for Americans he said had been overcharged for Affordable Care Act health policies, along with $90 payments to 21 million seniors.

The administration announced a plan to ease tariffs on beef imports amid high meat prices. It also announced a deal to buy Russian diesel as fuel used in trucking and agriculture reached a record high price. Trump signed an executive order easing limits on tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, which he said would save “millions” for farmers. In December, the administration announced a $12 billion farmer aid package.

Trump campaigned for Republican candidates, describing the economy as strong and touting tax cuts and stock market growth. At a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Oct. 10, he said, “Our first term, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, and we're blowing it away.” On Oct. 14, he said, “We're doing great.”

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers said unemployment was “pretty low” and the stock market was “doing pretty well,” rating the economy in the “B” range. He said Trump’s policies had hindered stronger growth: “The president was dealt a really good hand. The economy recovered from COVID. We're in great shape. We're at the beginning of an AI boom. This could have been great and maybe it's just OK.”

Political Costs and Rural Pressure

Cost pressures have reached Republican strongholds. Democrats led the Real Clear Politics average of recent Senate polls in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, states Trump carried by double digits. Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina also appeared increasingly competitive. Republicans were investing in Senate races in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa amid concern about voter enthusiasm.

Brunkow said economic frustration could dampen farmers’ enthusiasm for voting Republican, though he didn't think it necessarily meant they would vote for Democrats. David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, said farmers were “squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs.” His group was spending millions for Republican candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere.

Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, cited tariffs that hurt farmers’ businesses, the war with Iran and immigration raids in western Kansas that led to the detention of more than 100 people. He said the United States needed “workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.”

Former Sen. Jon Tester said farmers had to pay bills at the end of the month and that “for a number of months now it's been hard to do.” Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, Kansas, said rising health care and everyday costs added to her frustration. “The Republicans haven't done the Midwest any favors with that,” she said of trade agreements.

A separate AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll found about one-quarter of AAPI adults approved of Trump’s performance as president, while only about 2 in 10 approved of his handling of the economy. The vast majority viewed the economy as one of the most important election issues. Respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on a wide range of issues, though views of the Democratic Party itself remained split.