President Trump is spending the final month before Election Day in places Republicans usually don’t worry about. His five-state swing through Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska began Thursday, as polls show voters souring on his policies and naming war, high gas prices and persistent inflation as their top concerns.
The itinerary has some Republicans asking why he’s there at all. Democrats are trying to expand the midterm map, while Republicans hope to reproduce their 2024 presidential-year turnout, now two years old. Trump was set to visit Texas and Oklahoma on Thursday, Alabama on Friday and Nebraska on Monday.
Where the Map Is Tightening
Texas offers the clearest example. Trump was scheduled to tour Peterbilt Motors Company's plant in Denton, tout his economic record and what he calls the resurgence of American manufacturing, then head to Durant, Oklahoma, for a rally. Back in Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in polls. A Talarico win would give Democrats a Texas Senate seat for the first time since Lloyd Bentsen. Trump's super PAC has spent millions in recent weeks backing Paxton. Democrats also see openings in House races as Hispanic voters move away from the GOP, despite a Republican redistricting effort.
Oklahoma has an open governor's race and a Senate race after Markwayne Mullin resigned to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Cook Political Report rates the governor's race "solid Republican," but a Democratic operative said Democrats had seen polling showing it tied. Trump's endorsed candidate, Mike Mazzei, won his August primary runoff by less than a point. Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson took more than 74 percent in her June primary.
Mazzei spokesman Jahan Wilcox said, "President Trump has a history of backing winners, and we're winning," adding that Mazzei would fight to eliminate the state income tax and abolish property taxes for seniors and veterans. An unnamed GOP strategist disagreed, calling Mazzei "the worst possible candidate out of the field of Republicans in Oklahoma" and saying Trump was going "to try to save his brand" because the race was "tighter than it should be." The Democratic Governors Association said, "Republicans are in full-on panic mode."
In Alabama, Republicans redrew congressional lines to help the party gain a seat. Rep. Shomari Figures (D) now faces a district based in the state's southeastern quadrant rather than Mobile, where Trump's Friday rally is planned. In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted (R) defends his seat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who narrowly lost two years ago despite Trump's comfortable win there. Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy are close in the governor's race. Texas and Ohio are both toss-ups.
In Nebraska, Independent Dan Osborn is challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Rising energy prices have drawn attention to the race in an agriculture-dependent state. "There's no doubt that high fuel prices put a strain on the budgets for every Nebraska family," Ricketts told CNN's Dana Bash.
Stock Trades, Data Centers and Unfinished Business
While Trump hit the road, the Senate took up two bills tied to his party's candidates. Democrats blocked the Stop Insider Trading Act, sponsored by Ricketts, which would restrict members of Congress from buying new stocks. It got 53 votes, short of the 60 needed. Osborn has accused Ricketts of profiting from his stock portfolio.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said, "Only Senate Republicans would dare call a bill that permits members of Congress to continue to own, sell and, in some instances, buy stocks a stock-trading ban. They can't be serious. The Republican bill is a permission slip for corruption, not a stock-trading ban."
The Senate also rejected the Ratepayer Protection Act, backed by Husted, 57-43, with four Democrats joining Republicans. The bill would require utility regulators to consider a federal standard making large companies, not consumers, cover new energy infrastructure costs for data centers. Democrats said both bills didn't go far enough.
The Senate then left for a multiweek recess. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) pushed the farm bill, FISA reauthorization, the annual defense authorization bill, 12 regular appropriations bills, a permitting reform bill and an emergency supplemental defense package for the Pentagon until after Election Day. Senators will have four full weeks in November to pass them. Before leaving, they confirmed Keith Sonderling as permanent Labor secretary, 47-41, on party lines.
Republicans Split Over the Strategy
Asked Wednesday whether the tour signaled trouble, Trump didn’t answer directly. "We have the best economy anywhere in the world," he said. "The only thing we don't have is good public relations."
One Republican strategist said, "I think there are red flashing lights everywhere." Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ said, "Campaigns and presidents don't spend time where they're not needed, so that is a data point." Donor Dan Eberhart said nobody motivates the base like Trump, but he’d rather see him in North Carolina, Texas or Iowa. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said he had no concerns, arguing Trump has "a lot to brag about."
Why This Matters: The stops show where the political pressure lands. Voters name war, gas prices and inflation as their top worries, while Republican leaders had planned to promote their tax bill instead. Meanwhile, both bills touching on congressional stock trading and data center energy costs failed, and the Senate left behind a farm bill, 12 appropriations bills and defense funding. Those items affect farmers, federal programs and household budgets. Ricketts himself acknowledged that fuel prices strain every Nebraska family. How much the lame-duck Congress gets done in four weeks will matter to those families, as will the November results in states Republicans once took for granted.