President Trump is campaigning in Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska as Republicans try to reproduce their 2024 presidential-year turnout and Democrats seek gains in the House and Senate. The tour takes Trump into states with competitive contests and Republican strongholds, while party figures debate whether his visits can energize voters or signal concern about the races.
Trump was scheduled to visit a manufacturing facility in Denton, Texas, on Thursday, then travel to Durant, Oklahoma, for remarks and a rally. In Texas, he planned to promote what he calls the resurgence of American manufacturing and his economic record. In Oklahoma, he was expected to urge voters to support Republicans.
Battlegrounds and party lines
Texas has a competitive Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Polls have shown Talarico ahead. A Democratic victory would be a major gain for the party, which hasn’t held a Texas Senate seat since former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen served. Trump’s super PAC has spent millions in recent weeks supporting Paxton.
Democrats are also seeking House gains in Texas despite a Republican redistricting effort. The base article reports that Democrats see opportunities as Hispanic voters move away from the GOP, a demographic shift that could affect the party’s hold on the state.
Oklahoma has an open gubernatorial race and a Senate race following Markwayne Mullin’s resignation to lead the Department of Homeland Security. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates all five of the state’s House races “solid Republican,” and they aren’t expected to be competitive. Trump was expected to appear with his endorsed gubernatorial pick, Mike Mazzei, who is running against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson.
Cook Political Report rates the gubernatorial contest “solid Republican,” while a Democratic operative said Democrats had seen polling showing it tied. Mazzei won a Republican primary runoff by less than a point in August; Munson won the Democratic primary with more than 74 percent of the vote in June.
Mazzei campaign spokesman Jahan Wilcox said Trump had “a history of backing winners,” adding that the campaign was “excited to welcome him back to Oklahoma.” Wilcox said Mazzei was fighting to eliminate the state income tax, abolish property taxes for seniors and veterans, and make Oklahoma more affordable. An unnamed GOP strategist called Mazzei “the worst possible candidate out of the field of Republicans in Oklahoma” and said Trump was going there “to try to save his brand.” The Democratic Governors Association said, “Republicans are in full-on panic mode.”
Redistricting and voter concerns
Trump was scheduled to hold a Friday rally at the University of South Alabama in Mobile. Alabama’s Senate and gubernatorial races aren’t expected to be competitive, but Rep. Shomari Figures (D) faces a House race after Republicans redrew congressional lines to help the party gain a seat. Figures’ current district includes Mobile; starting with this year’s elections, the district will be based in the state’s southeastern quadrant. The GOP nominee, state Rep. Rhett Marques, was slated to speak at the rally, which is in the 1st Congressional District. House Republicans are targeting Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District.
In Ohio, Trump was set to campaign for Sen. Jon Husted (R), who is defending his seat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Brown narrowly lost reelection two years ago despite Trump’s comfortable victory in Ohio. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are in a close race for governor. Texas and Ohio are considered toss-up states.
Trump was also expected in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday. Democrats are backing Independent Dan Osborn, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in 2024 and is now running against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Osborn has said he wouldn’t caucus with either party; Trump is expected to portray him as aligned with the left. Rising energy prices have brought added attention to the contest in the agriculture-dependent state.
Campaign strategy under scrutiny
Ricketts told CNN’s Dana Bash, “There’s no doubt that high fuel prices put a strain on the budgets for every Nebraska family.” Asked about Trump’s visit, he said, “We welcome him.” Democrats are also seeking to flip Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as they pursue a House majority.
Republican reactions to the tour were mixed. An unnamed Republican strategist said, “I think there are red flashing lights everywhere.” Scott Tranter, co-founder and director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, said, “Campaigns and presidents don’t spend time where they’re not needed, so that is a data point.” A Republican source said the Oklahoma and Alabama appearances also reach the Texas and Florida media markets, respectively.
Republican donor Dan Eberhart said, “Nobody can motivate the base like Trump,” but said he’d rather see Trump in more competitive Senate race spots such as North Carolina, Texas or Iowa. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said he had no concerns about the visits, saying Trump could discuss tax cuts, jobs and economic growth. Trump said, “We have the best economy anywhere in the world,” and added, “The only thing we don’t have is good public relations.”