President Donald Trump said he has “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas’ May runoff. The polls tell a different story. Paxton’s image sits more than 10 points underwater in most surveys, by around 20 points in two recent ones, and he has trailed Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three polls.
That Texas contest is one of four Senate races—along with North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina—where Trump’s choices have raised the prospect that he could again complicate his party’s effort to hold or gain seats. None of the races is certain to turn on his decisions. But a close fight for the majority could leave Republicans second-guessing, as they may have after 2020 and 2022, when Trump may have cost the party control of the chamber.
Texas: The Endorsement That Never Came
After the March primary, many expected Trump to back Cornyn, who had only gently criticized him at times and was thought to have a better shot at holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon.” It never arrived. Weeks later, with Paxton about to win the runoff, Trump backed him instead.
Paxton carries an impeachment and criminal charges, and he hasn’t repaired his image since the runoff. Trump himself has mocked Paxton’s appearance, dress and speech. Cornyn isn’t popular either, and his prospects were uncertain in a year when Democrats are competitive in red states such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Still, a recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary. Cornyn has kept avoiding support for Paxton, and CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio in which Paxton privately claimed Cornyn wanted him to lose. If Paxton loses and Democrats end up with a bare majority, Trump’s failure to endorse Cornyn could become the defining moment of the 2026 election.
North Carolina and Georgia: Retirements and Runoffs
In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis says Trump’s attacks pushed him toward retirement. In his new book, Tillis recalled deciding to leave just after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates. Tillis texted the president: “Ack Mr. President. Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.” Trump replied, “I am! DJT.”
Tillis left the race. Popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper entered it. Tillis might have struggled against Cooper, but incumbency would have helped, and he likely would have been more formidable than former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, the candidate the GOP rallied around. Whatley’s image is underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News. The party may be giving up on the state, even though Trump carried it in all three of his elections.
In Georgia, Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the June GOP runoff. Collins was the more MAGA candidate; Dooley had the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes clashed with Trump. Collins already faced questions about past controversies, and later disclosures raised more questions about his apparent ties to white nationalists. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is popular, so Dooley may not have made the race competitive. Even so, the GOP has shown signs of walking away from the contest.
South Carolina: A Safe Seat Gets Expensive
Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024. Republicans are still spending $5 million to bolster appointed Sen. Darline Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews, though the party is considered unlikely to lose the seat. Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was little known until Trump backed her July appointment to replace her brother. She then won the primary runoff with his endorsement, despite what the article described as very unsteady moments.
Party insiders objected to elevating a newcomer over established politicians who had waited years for a Senate vacancy. Some GOP voters have discussed writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham. Trump recently attacked Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur. How close the race is remains unclear, with quality polling still awaited. The decision to back Graham seemed to lack a clear reason, and the party is now dealing with the consequences.
A Familiar Pattern
The problems aren’t new. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election were followed by the January 5, 2021, Georgia Senate runoffs, where turnout fell disproportionately in heavily conservative areas. Republicans had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs before then. This time, they lost ground.
In a later interview, Trump acknowledged that supposed voter fraud had turned off GOP voters. He said he hadn’t urged them as strongly as he could have to trust Georgia election officials because he was angry. Events on January 6, 2021, spared him a reckoning over the runoffs. He went on to make what the article called curious endorsement decisions in 2022. The difference in 2026, the article noted, is that Trump is now the sitting president and must deal with whoever holds the Senate majority.
Why This Matters:
The Senate decides what a president can confirm, fund and sign. If Republican voters in four states must choose between flawed nominees, the consequences extend well beyond party scorekeeping. A narrow Democratic majority would change which nominees clear confirmation and what legislation reaches the president’s desk. The reporting also shows how candidate selection driven by personal loyalty and grievance, rather than electability, can leave voters with weaker options and put even safe seats in play. Whether Trump’s choices decide the majority remains unknown. But with several races close or uncertain, voters in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina may decide how much those choices cost.