Ken Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three polls, while his image sits more than 10 points underwater in most surveys. That’s the Texas Senate race Republicans now face. It may be the clearest sign yet that President Donald Trump’s hands-on approach to candidate selection could put the party’s Senate majority at risk.
This pattern isn’t new. Trump might have cost Republicans the Senate majority in 2020 and 2022. Developments in 2026 have raised the possibility that his involvement could again complicate the party’s efforts to hold or gain seats. The contests drawing scrutiny are in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina. No one can say for certain that Trump’s actions changed any of them. But in a tight fight for the majority, Republicans could regret his choices.
Texas: The Paxton Problem
Trump said he had “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. Paxton hasn’t repaired his image since. Two recent polls put his favorability roughly 20 points underwater, and some surveys suggest he’s lost ground. He also carries baggage that includes an impeachment and criminal charges.
Cornyn isn’t a beloved figure either. His prospects were hardly guaranteed given Democratic competitiveness in red states such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Still, a recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary. Cornyn has continued to avoid supporting Paxton, and CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio in which Paxton privately claimed Cornyn wanted him to lose.
After the primary, the conventional expectation was that Trump would endorse Cornyn, despite Cornyn having gently criticized him at times. Cornyn was thought to have the better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon.” It never arrived. Weeks later, with Paxton about to win the runoff, Trump backed him. If Paxton loses and Democrats end up with a bare majority, that non-endorsement could become the pivotal moment of the 2026 election.
North Carolina and Georgia: Seats Slipping Away
Sen. Thom Tillis has said Trump’s attacks pushed him toward retirement. In his new book, Tillis recalled deciding to retire just after Trump went after him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates. Tillis texted the president: “Ack Mr. President. Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.” Trump replied, “I am! DJT.”
Tillis left the race. Popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper jumped in. Tillis might have struggled against Cooper, but incumbency would have helped him, and he likely would have been more formidable than former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, the candidate the party rallied around. Whatley’s image is underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News. The GOP may now be giving up on North Carolina, a state Trump carried in all three of his elections.
In Georgia, Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the June GOP Senate runoff. Collins was the more MAGA candidate. Dooley had the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes clashed with Trump. Collins already faced questions over past controversies, and later disclosures raised questions about his apparent ties to white nationalists. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is popular, so Dooley might not have made the race competitive either. Even so, the GOP has shown signs of giving up on the contest.
South Carolina: A Safe Seat Gets Expensive
Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024, yet the state has become another worry. The GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to bolster appointed Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews. Republicans still consider the seat unlikely to fall.
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was little known before Trump backed her appointment in July to replace her brother. She won the primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement despite what the article described as very unsteady moments. Party insiders objected to elevating a newcomer over more established politicians who had waited years for a Senate vacancy. Some GOP voters have discussed writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham. Quality polling is still awaited. Trump also recently attacked Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur, and his decision to back Graham seemed to have little reason behind it.
An Old Pattern
Trump and his political operation have faced this before: nominating candidates who struggled to win and making it harder for Republicans to capture Senate seats. His efforts to overturn the 2020 election were followed by the Georgia runoffs on January 5, 2021, where turnout fell disproportionately in heavily conservative areas. The GOP had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs before then. It lost ground in those.
Trump later acknowledged that supposed voter fraud had turned off GOP voters. He said he hadn’t urged them as strongly as he could have to trust Georgia election officials because he was angry. Events on January 6, 2021, the day after the runoffs, spared him a reckoning. He went on to make what the article called curious endorsement decisions in 2022. The difference in 2026, per the article, is that Trump is president and must deal with whoever holds the Senate majority.
Why This Matters:
A Senate majority isn’t an abstraction. It decides whether a president’s nominees get confirmed, whether spending and tax measures pass, and how much oversight an administration faces. Republicans who want to protect the party’s agenda on spending restraint, judicial appointments and regulatory rollback need the votes to do it. The article’s reporting suggests the party is spending scarce resources—including $5 million in a state Trump won by 18 points—to defend ground that should be safe, while writing off seats in North Carolina and Georgia. From a governing standpoint, candidate quality matters because it determines where the party has to play defense. If Democrats finish with even a bare majority, Trump will face the consequences of his own endorsement choices as president.