President Donald Trump’s 2026 Senate endorsements have put Republican efforts to hold or gain seats under renewed pressure in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina, where candidate choices could affect which party controls the Senate. None of the contests is certain to have changed because of Trump’s actions, but a close fight for the majority could leave Republicans reckoning with his decisions.
Texas: The Primary Choice
Trump said he had “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. Paxton hasn’t repaired his image since the runoff, and some recent polls suggest he has lost ground. His image is more than 10 points underwater in most polls, including by around 20 points in two recent polls.
Paxton has trailed Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three polls. A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary. Cornyn also isn’t popular, and his prospects could have been uncertain given Democratic competitiveness in red states such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
After the primary, the conventional expectation was that Trump would endorse Cornyn, who many thought had a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon,” but didn’t endorse Cornyn. Weeks later, when Paxton was about to win the runoff, Trump backed him. Cornyn has continued to avoid supporting Paxton.
Trump has mocked Paxton’s appearance, dress and speech. Paxton also faces baggage that includes an impeachment and criminal charges. CNN’s Patrick Svitek reported Friday on leaked audio in which Paxton privately claimed Cornyn wanted him to lose. If Paxton loses and Democrats have a bare majority, Trump’s failure to endorse Cornyn might emerge as “the” pivotal moment of the 2026 election.
North Carolina and Georgia
Sen. Thom Tillis has said Trump’s attacks pushed him toward retirement. In his new book, Tillis recalled deciding to retire just after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates. Tillis texted Trump, “Ack Mr. President. Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.” Trump replied, “I am! DJT.”
Tillis left the race, and popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper entered it. The GOP may be giving up on North Carolina, even though Trump carried the state in all three of his elections. Tillis might have struggled against Cooper, but would have had the advantage of incumbency. He likely would have been more formidable than former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, the candidate around whom the GOP rallied. Whatley’s image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News.
In Georgia, Trump backed Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff in June. Collins was the more MAGA candidate; Dooley had the backing of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes clashed with Trump. Collins already faced questions stemming from past controversies, and later disclosures raised questions about his apparent ties to white nationalists. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is popular, and the GOP has shown signs of giving up on the contest.
South Carolina and the Senate
South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, has become another concern for Republicans, though they’re considered unlikely to lose the seat. The GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to bolster appointed Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews.
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, had been little known before Trump backed her appointment in July to replace her brother. Trump and Graham then decided she should run for a full term. She won the primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement despite what the article described as very unsteady moments. Party insiders objected to elevating a newcomer over more established politicians who had waited years for a Senate vacancy. Some GOP voters have discussed writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham. Quality polling was still awaited, and the race’s closeness was unclear.
Trump and his political operation have encountered similar problems before, nominating candidates who struggled to win and making it harder for Republicans to capture Senate seats. His efforts to overturn the 2020 election were followed by the Georgia runoffs held on January 5, 2021. Turnout fell disproportionately in heavily conservative areas; the GOP, which had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs before then, lost ground in those contests.
Trump later acknowledged that supposed voter fraud had turned off GOP voters. He said he hadn’t urged them as strongly as he could have to trust Georgia election officials because he was angry. The article said events in the hours after the runoffs, on January 6, 2021, spared Trump a reckoning over them. In 2026, as president, Trump must deal with whoever holds the Senate majority.