Republican candidates in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina are heading into Senate contests shaped by Donald Trump's endorsements and conflicts with fellow Republicans. The outcomes remain uncertain, but a close fight for control of the Senate could leave the party reckoning with his choices.
Candidate choices and party control
In Texas, Trump said he had “no regrets” about backing state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their May runoff. Paxton hasn't repaired his image since the runoff, and some recent polls suggest he's lost ground. His image sits more than 10 points underwater in most polls, including by around 20 points in two recent polls. Three polls showed him trailing Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points.
Cornyn isn't popular either. His prospects could have been uncertain amid Democratic competitiveness in red states such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20% of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the March primary. Cornyn has continued to avoid supporting Paxton. On Friday, CNN's Patrick Svitek reported on leaked audio in which Paxton privately claimed Cornyn wanted him to lose.
Trump had mocked Paxton's appearance, dress and speech. Paxton also carries baggage, including an impeachment and criminal charges. After the primary, conventional wisdom held that Trump would endorse Cornyn, who was thought to have a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an endorsement was coming “soon,” but didn't endorse Cornyn. Weeks later, as Paxton was about to win the runoff, Trump backed him. If Paxton loses and Democrats secure a bare majority, Trump's failure to endorse Cornyn might emerge as “the” pivotal moment of the 2026 election, the article said.
Retirement, runoffs and endorsements
In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis has said Trump's attacks pushed him toward retirement. In his new book, Tillis recalled deciding to retire just after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates. Tillis texted Trump: “Ack Mr. President. Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement.” Trump replied, “I am! DJT.” Tillis left the race, and popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper entered it.
The GOP may be giving up on North Carolina, even though Trump carried the state in all three of his elections. Tillis might have struggled against Cooper, but incumbency would have given him an advantage. The article says he likely would have been more formidable than former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, the candidate around whom the GOP rallied. Whatley's image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News.
In Georgia, Trump backed Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff in June. Collins was the more MAGA candidate; Dooley had the backing of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes clashed with Trump. Collins already faced questions over past controversies, and later disclosures raised questions about his apparent ties to white nationalists. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is popular. The GOP has shown signs of giving up on the contest.
Party insiders and the South Carolina race
South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, has become another concern for Republicans, though they're considered unlikely to lose the seat. The GOP recently decided to spend $5 million to bolster appointed Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews. Trump attacked Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur.
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, had little name recognition before Trump backed her appointment in July to replace her brother. Trump and Graham then decided she should run for a full term. She won the primary runoff with Trump's endorsement despite what the article described as very unsteady moments. Party insiders objected to elevating a newcomer over more established politicians who had waited years for a Senate vacancy. Some GOP voters have discussed writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham. The race's closeness remains unclear, and quality polling was still awaited.
Earlier Senate contests offer a precedent for the party's concerns. Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election were followed by the Georgia runoffs held on January 5, 2021. Turnout fell disproportionately in heavily conservative areas, and Republicans lost ground in contests where they had almost always gained ground before. Trump later acknowledged that supposed voter fraud had turned off GOP voters. The article says the distinction in 2026 is that Trump, as president, must deal with whoever holds the Senate majority.