Trump's Sanctions Waiver Shields Trade, Pressures Ukraine

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump waived key sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy, easing pressure on India as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned the move would strengthen Russia’s war effort. The executive order shifts the cost of Washington’s bargaining strategy onto people facing the consequences of war—and leaves a trade deal with India in the balance.

Who Gets Relief—and Who Pays

“Waiving sanctions will hurt Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said. Speaking to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, he said the waiver would strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort. “He's [an] aggressor. He occupied us. He killed adults and children, his soldiers. He's a terrorist,” Zelenskyy said, urging Trump to state his position clearly.

The order waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian goods, along with penalties on purchases of Russian oil and gas, scheduled to begin this week under the Graham Act. Trump said the waiver served the U.S. national interest. The sanctions package aimed to pressure the Kremlin to end its military operations against Ukraine by imposing tariffs on major Russian energy purchasers and those helping Russia evade sanctions.

India faced the proposed penalties directly. The legislation could have subjected Indian goods to tariffs of up to 100%, since India is one of the five largest importers of Russian oil. It’s also the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer. Russia supplied nearly half of India’s oil imports earlier this year, though purchases fell in August and continued to decline.

Further cuts to Russian oil imports to avoid U.S. tariffs could raise fuel prices in India ahead of regional elections or strain government finances. That’s the cost of a policy set far from the people who’ll feel its effects.

A Trade Deal at the Bargaining Table

The waiver could boost prospects for a U.S.-India trade agreement and improve bilateral ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration warned last month that the proposed tariffs on Russia could harm relations, adding diplomatic strain and uncertainty over trade.

The two sides had discussed a trade agreement for months, but it remained unfinished, partly because talks stalled over the new tariff threat. A U.S. Section 301 trade investigation into several countries, including India, over alleged excess manufacturing capacity also remained incomplete. Section 301 is a U.S. trade law allowing retaliation against unfair foreign trade practices.

India joined a U.S.-led initiative against structural overcapacity earlier this month. Trade officials in New Delhi said last week that an agreement was nearly done and voiced optimism about securing a tariff lower than those faced by competing countries, a longstanding Indian expectation. Governments are still negotiating the terms imposed on trade; the people who may pay higher fuel costs aren't setting them.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was due to arrive in India on Tuesday, said trade talks were among the considerations in Trump’s decision. “We are trying to finalise a trade deal with India right now and we are very close to doing that,” Rubio told reporters in Uzbekistan on Monday. He said the administration weighed the talks when the president made decisions about “national security waivers.”

The President’s Terms for Peace

Trump defended the waiver on Truth Social on Sunday, saying he didn’t want to “drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.” He added, “Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations!” Trump also said Russia was doing “very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and that he wanted to keep it that way “unless stupid people get in the way.”

Trump accused Zelenskyy of not wanting to end the war. He said Ukrainian attacks on Russian diesel refineries were “seriously hurting the world diesel markets,” including those in the United States. He wrote that Zelenskyy “could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now,” and described Ukraine as being “in shambles.”

Zelenskyy said Ukraine trusted Trump and that it would be “unbelievable” for the United States to support Putin over him. He also said he had spoken with U.S. presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as part of “virtually non-stop communication” about diplomacy. “We are doing everything on our part to make this happen,” he wrote on X.

On October 9, Trump announced plans for Russia to supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to U.S. and global markets, seeking to address fuel prices that had risen since the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February. The move followed Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global energy exports had transited before the war.

Russia and Ukraine kept striking each other’s energy sites as Zelenskyy spoke with Witkoff and Kushner. Moscow’s strikes left thousands without power, while Kyiv carried out its largest drone attack on Russia, in St. Petersburg, since the war began. Washington’s waiver puts energy and trade bargaining at the center of its policy; people living through the war are left with the consequences.