President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday waiving Russia-related sanctions and tariffs set to take effect this week under the Graham Act. He cited the U.S. national interest and a desire to keep Moscow at the bargaining table.
The order also lifts penalties on purchases of Russian oil and gas. Without the waiver, goods from India, one of the five largest importers of Russian oil, would have faced tariffs of up to 100%. India is also the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer. Russia supplied nearly half of its oil imports earlier this year, though purchases fell in August and kept declining.
The Trade Calculus
The waiver arrived at a delicate moment for Washington and New Delhi. The two sides have discussed a trade agreement for months, but it remains unfinished, partly because talks stalled over the new tariff threat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration warned last month that the proposed measures could hurt relations.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn't hide the commercial reasoning. "We are trying to finalise a trade deal with India right now and we are very close to doing that," he told reporters in Uzbekistan on Monday. "So, that's one of the things we take into consideration when the President makes a decision about national security waivers." He also made a practical point: "For some countries it is very difficult to acquire energy from alternative sources."
Rubio was due in India on Tuesday for a two-day visit. His schedule included a meeting with foreign minister S. Jaishankar on energy, trade and investment, and defence. Trade officials in New Delhi said last week that an agreement was nearly done and voiced optimism about securing a tariff lower than those faced by competing countries.
Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, called the pause "the confidence-building measure that gives the two sides the negotiating space to get over the final hump." He said the waiver "provides an important opening and at a critical moment," after renewed tensions over the sanctions bill and new U.S. visa policies had put the relationship "in danger of falling into even harder times."
India has a pocketbook concern, too. Persistently cutting Russian oil imports to dodge U.S. tariffs could push up fuel prices ahead of regional elections or strain government finances.
Energy Markets and the Iran War
The waiver followed Trump's October 9 announcement that Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to U.S. and global markets. Fuel prices had climbed since the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, now in its eighth month. Tehran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, one-fifth of global energy exports had moved through it.
Trump also pointed to the damage Ukraine's strikes are doing to fuel supply. He said Ukrainian attacks on Russian diesel refineries were "seriously hurting the world diesel markets," including those in the United States.
Kyiv Pushes Back
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was blunt. Waiving sanctions, he said, "will hurt Ukraine." On NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, he said the move would strengthen Vladimir Putin's war effort. "He's [an] aggressor. He occupied us. He killed adults and children," Zelenskyy said. He added that Ukraine trusted Trump and that it would be "unbelievable" for the United States to back Putin over him.
Trump responded on Truth Social. He said he didn't want to "drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table," and claimed "great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations!" He wrote that Russia was doing "very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing." He accused Zelenskyy of not wanting to end the war, said the Ukrainian leader "could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now," and wrote: "I WANT THIS WAR END."
The sanctions package aimed to pressure the Kremlin with tariffs on top Russian energy purchasers and those helping Russia evade sanctions. Zelenskyy said it "could have helped enormously." Many U.S. officials and European partners say Trump's embrace of Russian energy rewards Moscow during its war, which has run four years since the 2022 invasion. Fighting hasn't slowed. Moscow's strikes left thousands without power, while Kyiv carried out its largest drone attack on Russia, in St. Petersburg, since the war began.
Zelenskyy said he spoke Sunday with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in "virtually non-stop communication" on next steps in diplomacy.
Why This Matters:
The waiver shows a White House weighing energy prices, trade deals and war diplomacy against one another, then choosing flexibility over a rigid penalty regime. For consumers and businesses, the stakes are concrete: a tariff of up to 100% on a major trading partner would have rattled supply chains, while cheaper diesel from Russia could ease pressure at the pump with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. The risk runs the other way, too. Critics in Kyiv and Europe argue the move lets Moscow keep earning from energy sales while fighting continues. Whether Trump's bet on keeping Russia at the table pays off depends on results the base facts don't yet show: a finished India trade deal, falling fuel costs, or real movement toward ending the war.
- donald trump
- russia sanctions
- india
- ukraine war
- volodymyr zelenskyy
- trade agreement
- russian oil
- international diplomacy