Turkish officials delivered a pointed message to Tehran during high-level talks earlier this month: stop attacking Kurdish groups in the region, or risk driving them into Israel's arms and destabilizing an already fragile peace process. The warning came as Turkey advances sensitive negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and prepares legislation that would allow former militants to return home within six months.
The Israeli Plan Turkey Helped Block
Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz received a warm welcome from Iranian officials during his visit to Tehran, where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hosted him and his delegation. A source familiar with the visit said Pezeshkian thanked Turkey for helping prevent an Israeli plan to foment an armed insurrection by Kurdish groups in western Iran. Senior Turkish officials had tried to convince their U.S. counterparts that the plan, devised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was unrealistic and could threaten Turkey's national security.
But Ankara's message to Tehran wasn't only about cooperation. Several people familiar with the matter said Turkey was concerned that, after the failure of the Kurdish insurgency plan, further Iranian action against Kurdish groups in Iran and Iraq could push them into Israel's arms. Iran has bombarded PDKI camps in northern Iraq since the war began in late February, five months ago. Turkey fears that continued military pressure could push Iranian Kurdish opposition groups such as the PDKI, Komala and the Kurdistan Freedom Party, or PAK, closer to the West, particularly Israel.
Turkey's Peace Process at Stake
Turkey is deeply invested in its peace talks with the PKK, and further Iranian action in Iraq, where the group is present, could undermine the sensitive process. The Turkish government plans to introduce draft legislation in parliament on Monday, in two days, that would pave the way for former PKK militants to return to Turkey within six months. The partial pardon would offer non-violent PKK cadres an opportunity to reintegrate into society.
Mehmet Alaca, described as a prominent Turkish expert on Iraq, said increased Iranian military pressure could push Iranian Kurdish opposition groups closer to the West. He said, "The Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which has hosted these groups for many years, would bear the greatest cost of such a development." He added, "Besides risking the transformation of the region into a new front in the Iran-Israel rivalry, this scenario could make the balance between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK, in Iraq, the party led by the Talabani family, even more fragile. It could also provide Tehran with a justification for further expanding its influence in the region on security grounds."
Diplomatic Maneuvering in Northern Iraq
Turkey has sought to minimize the destabilizing impact of Iranian influence in northern Iraq by courting the traditionally pro-Iranian PUK, which normalized relations with Ankara earlier this month through an official visit to Turkey. Alaca said, "Following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the KDP and PUK, despite their intense rivalry on numerous issues, adopted a common position that Iranian Kurdish opposition groups should not become involved in the Iran conflict."
He added, "For Turkey, the most critical dimension is the peace process and the new security architecture it is seeking to build for the post-PKK era. The extension of the Iran-Israel rivalry into Iraqi Kurdistan and the re-emergence of the Kurdish card at the centre of the regional power struggle would directly undermine Turkey's long-term security calculations."
U.S. Skepticism of Netanyahu's Plans
U.S. President Donald Trump indirectly suggested on several occasions that Ankara had even considered entering the war to prevent the emergence of another Kurdish separatist entity on its borders, following its experience in Syria. Senior Trump aides were highly sceptical of Netanyahu's regime-change proposal at the White House, including the notion that Kurdish forces could mount a ground invasion of Iran. The CIA director reportedly used one word to describe Netanyahu's regime-change scenarios: "farcical." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly said, "In other words, it's bullshit."
Why This Matters:
Turkey's dual message to Iran and Israel reveals the fragility of regional diplomacy at a moment when Kurdish groups risk becoming pawns in a larger power struggle. Ankara's peace process with the PKK represents a rare opportunity to end decades of internal conflict, but it depends on regional stability that neither Tehran's military operations nor Jerusalem's regime-change fantasies can provide. If Iranian attacks continue, Kurdish opposition groups may have no choice but to accept Israeli support, transforming northern Iraq into another front in the Iran-Israel confrontation. That would undermine not only Turkey's security architecture but also the precarious balance between Iraqi Kurdish factions, potentially drawing Ankara into a conflict it has worked hard to avoid. The stakes aren't abstract: they're measured in displaced communities, fractured peace talks, and the prospect of yet another regional war that would devastate civilian populations across multiple borders.