Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian extended gratitude to Turkey earlier this month for its role in thwarting an Israeli scheme to instigate an armed insurrection by Kurdish groups in western Iran. The revelation came during a visit by Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz to Tehran, where he was hosted by President Pezeshkian and his delegation.
The plan, reportedly devised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aimed to destabilize the region. Senior Turkish officials conveyed their assessment to their U.S. counterparts, arguing that the proposal was unrealistic and posed a direct threat to Turkey's national security.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration reportedly harbored deep skepticism regarding Netanyahu's regime-change proposal. Senior Trump aides at the White House found the notion of Kurdish forces mounting a ground invasion of Iran highly improbable. The CIA director, according to reports, described Netanyahu's scenarios as "farcical," while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly dismissed them as "bullshit."
Regional Destabilization
Ankara also delivered a clear message to Tehran: cease attacks on Kurdish groups in the region. Turkey expressed significant concern that continued Iranian military action against Kurdish factions in Iran and Iraq could inadvertently push these groups towards Israel.
Such a development, Turkish officials fear, would severely undermine the sensitive peace talks Turkey is conducting with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The Turkish government is poised to introduce draft legislation in parliament on Monday, designed to facilitate the return of former non-violent PKK militants to Turkey within six months, offering them a path to reintegrate into society.
Mehmet Alaca, a prominent Turkish expert on Iraq, warned that increased Iranian military pressure could draw Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, including the PDKI, Komala, and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), closer to Western powers, particularly Israel. He emphasized that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which has long hosted these groups, would bear the brunt of such a dangerous escalation.
Alaca further elaborated on the risks, stating that this scenario could transform the region into a new front in the Iran-Israel rivalry. It could also destabilize the delicate balance between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Iraq, potentially providing Tehran with a pretext to expand its regional influence on security grounds.
Ongoing Conflict and Diplomacy
Iran has consistently bombarded PDKI camps in northern Iraq for five months, since the war began in late February. This ongoing military pressure contributes to the regional volatility.
Turkey has actively sought to mitigate the destabilizing impact of Iranian influence in northern Iraq. Ankara has courted the traditionally pro-Iranian PUK, which recently normalized relations with Turkey through an official visit earlier this month.
Following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, both the KDP and PUK, despite their intense rivalry, adopted a unified stance. They agreed that Iranian Kurdish opposition groups should not become entangled in the broader Iran conflict. For Turkey, Alaca concluded, the most critical dimension remains its peace process and the new security architecture it aims to build for the post-PKK era. The extension of the Iran-Israel rivalry into Iraqi Kurdistan, and the re-emergence of the Kurdish question at the center of the regional power struggle, would directly jeopardize Turkey’s long-term security calculations.