The UAE has recorded no initial public offering listings so far in 2026. Morgan Stanley co-president Dan Simkowitz says IPOs could rebound if the US-Iran conflict ends or stabilises. The bank’s forecast hinges on less uncertainty for investors. For now, the region’s war-driven risk premium sits alongside a pitch for more capital, borrowing and continued expansion.
UAE companies raised $1.1 billion through three IPOs in 2025, Dealogic data shows. Simkowitz told The National that “as the conflicts get resolved or hits some level of stabilisation, you will definitely see a rebound in the IPO marketplace in the UAE.” Morgan Stanley, he said, is “investing in and have high confidence in that,” and has been impressed with the country’s financial infrastructure.
War, priced by the markets
The Iran war began on February 28, increasing uncertainty across the Middle East. After the US-Israeli bombing of Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on its Arab neighbours halted in early April, a fragile ceasefire remained in place across the region. Simkowitz described the conflict as creating “a slightly higher and hopefully temporary risk premium in the region,” while saying it hadn’t changed long-term investment perspectives or investor interest.
The economic forecast is less upbeat. A World Bank report released the previous week projected Gulf economies would contract by an average of 4.3 per cent in 2026, a downward revision of 5.7 percentage points from its April forecast. The International Monetary Fund also expected the Gulf economy to contract this year, followed by a strong recovery next year if shipping normalised, its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said.
Simkowitz said the region had built “extreme resilience” and had the capital strength to rebuild or redirect energy infrastructure, with international capital available to help. His account puts infrastructure and investment at the centre of recovery. The World Bank and IMF forecasts describe the contraction surrounding that bet.
More debt, more capital
Morgan Stanley, headquartered in the US, has more than $10 trillion in assets and has operated in the region for the past 20 years. It opened an office in Abu Dhabi in 2024 and has well over 100 employees in the region. The bank plans to expand its operations. “We’re going to stay very committed to growing that. I think wealth and asset management will be a part of that,” Simkowitz said.
The bank’s regional deal pipeline remains active, he said, though some deals are paused. Companies may need to reassess supply-chain resilience and diversification, but “most of it that was on is underway.”
Simkowitz also expects credit markets to grow across the UAE and the region. They include bonds, government debt, private credit and bank loans. Gulf debt capital markets had $1.2 trillion outstanding at the end of the first half of 2026, according to Fitch Ratings; he said more than $100 billion had been raised in regional debt markets that year.
The next investment bet
Simkowitz called the expansion of fixed-income and bond markets “incredibly important.” He said talks with Gulf finance ministries, stock exchanges and other leaders had increasingly focused on credit markets, following what he described as success with ADX (Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange) and other Gulf exchanges in equities. Debt markets, he argued, are needed alongside equity to support growth, diversification and resilience.
AI is another major investment theme in his outlook. Simkowitz called it “incredibly transformational,” saying it would require substantial capital before productivity gains arrive. He described the UAE as one of the world’s most important AI players relative to GDP, wealth or market capitalisation. A recent Bain report said the AI industry would need $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify capital deployed for data centres; new product development is projected to generate about $4.2 trillion within the next half-decade.
S&P Global Ratings said AI investment and “surprisingly enduring demand” had bolstered credit conditions in many major economies in 2026, while warning that positive momentum would be harder to sustain. It pointed to rising benchmark borrowing costs, including government-debt yields, and the challenge central banks face as they fight inflation. Simkowitz’s outlook for 2027 was shorter: “I think intense and don’t be complacent. No one can be complacent.”