UK Welfare Bill Set to Reach £431.3bn by 2031/32

The U.K. Government is estimated to have spent £333.8 billion on welfare in 2025/26, and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts the bill will reach £431.3 billion by 2031/32. That’s an increase of £97.5 billion. The figures show how public money flows through state-defined benefits—and how those commitments are expected to grow.

The OBR forecasts welfare spending will rise from 10.9% of GDP to 11.3%. Pensioners sit at the centre of the increase in its projections, while health and disability claims also push the forecast upward. These totals aren’t abstract: they reflect government rules, including who qualifies for support and how pension payments rise.

Who gets counted in the state’s ledger

Pensioners accounted for the largest share of the 2025/26 budget: £161.4 billion, nearly half the total. The OBR projects pension spending will reach £209.8 billion by 2031/32, passing £200 billion for the first time. Pensioners are forecast to account for £48.4 billion of the additional £97.5 billion in welfare spending, just under half.

The triple lock adds to pension costs. Under that rule, pensions rise each year by whichever is highest: annual inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%. The OBR also cites the U.K.’s ageing population as a driver. It says the current increase in the state pension age will finish by March 2028, so it won’t have any further downward effect on welfare spending from 2029-30 onwards. The next rise is expected between 2037 and 2039, “meaning the state-pension-age population and therefore pensioner spending is expected to grow significantly until then”.

Universal Credit, the U.K.’s main means-tested benefit, accounted for £92.8 billion in 2025/26, just over a quarter of welfare spending. It replaced a mixture of earlier benefits, including income support, jobseeker’s allowance, housing benefit and tax credits. The OBR forecasts Universal Credit spending will reach £110.7 billion by 2031/32.

Claims, forecasts and political choices

The OBR says “high volumes” of new claims for health-related Universal Credit have raised its forecast. Disability benefits are projected to climb from £45.3 billion in 2025/26 to £69.6 billion in 2031/32, accounting for £24.3 billion of the forecast increase. Universal Credit adds another £17.9 billion in spending.

Across all health and disability benefits, the estimated 2025/26 total was £85.6 billion: £63.0 billion for working-age adults, £15.5 billion for pensioners and £7.1 billion for children. The OBR forecasts that total will reach £120.2 billion in 2031/32 and pass £100 billion in 2028/29, one year earlier than previously forecast.

The outlook remains uncertain. Health and disability benefits have seen “very significant rises in caseloads since the pandemic,” the OBR says. Its main forecast assumes cases will keep rising more slowly than earlier in the decade. But if they keep growing at the post-pandemic rate, the OBR says “this could add around £25 billion to welfare spending by 2031/32.” If cases slow to pre-pandemic rates, spending could be around £13 billion lower by the end of the period.

The remaining 2025/26 welfare expenditure included £13.4 billion for child benefit and £20.8 billion for other welfare, including social security in Northern Ireland, which the region administers separately. The Press Association prepared the figures and projections. The forecast puts a price tag on the state’s decisions; it also shows how much depends on benefit rules, eligibility and the number of people seeking support.