UN Chief Race: Two Veto Powers Discouraged Grynspan

Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica led the sixth U.N. Security Council straw poll for secretary-general on Friday, Oct. 16, with nine “encourage” votes. But two of the five permanent members discouraged her, signaling that she could face opposition when the Council holds its formal vote.

The secret ballot gave Grynspan nine “encourage,” five “discourage” and one “no opinion” vote. Three permanent members encouraged her. Two didn’t. No formal veto came into play: straw polls are informal, and a “discourage” ballot isn’t itself a veto. Still, diplomats read the result as a signal.

The tallies emerged only through leaks. The Council doesn’t publish results; its president simply announces that a poll took place. PassBlue, an independent news site covering the United Nations, published the figures on Oct. 16, and Costa Rican outlets Nación and Monumental reported the same numbers for Grynspan.

How the Veto Works

Article 97 of the U.N. Charter says the 193-member General Assembly appoints the secretary-general “upon the recommendation of the Security Council.” The Council has 15 members. Article 27 requires nine affirmative votes on substantive matters, including the concurring votes of permanent members.

PassBlue and the Costa Rican outlets said a recommendation therefore needs at least nine encourage votes and no objection from a permanent member. China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States hold those seats. The other 10 members are elected. So five governments can block a candidate favored by a large majority of the world body, while positions may still shift in later polls or the formal vote.

The Council used colour-coded ballots for the first time. The five permanent members voted on a different colour from the 10 elected members, making the divide between the two groups easier to read.

A Crowded and Contested Field

Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana received eight encourage and six discourage votes. Rafael Grossi of Argentina got the same tally, according to Nación. Seven candidates remain, and none withdrew after the fifth poll on Oct. 7: Grynspan, Grossi, Rodrigues Birkett, María Fernanda Espinosa, Ivonne A-Baki, Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Macky Sall.

Espinosa and A-Baki are from Ecuador; Antigua and Barbuda nominated Espinosa, while Tonga nominated A-Baki. Burundi nominated Sall and Uganda nominated Otunnu. On Oct. 13, the regional bloc CELAC asked that a Latin American or Caribbean national be selected. PassBlue reported that Panama supports Grossi and says the region is due its turn.

Grynspan told reporters in Costa Rica that no one knew for certain how members voted in the secret ballot. She said she’d try to reverse the two negative votes. Nación reported that PassBlue cited an anonymous diplomat on which permanent members discouraged her, but Grynspan disputed the account, and no authority has confirmed it.

Process and Transparency

The presidents of the General Assembly and Security Council opened the process with a joint letter on Nov. 25, 2025, inviting governments to nominate candidates and asking for vision statements and funding disclosures. Ten months and 22 days have elapsed since then. Straw polls began on July 30, followed by rounds on Aug. 21, Sept. 18, Sept. 29, Oct. 7 and Oct. 16.

Each Council member gets a ballot per candidate with three choices: “encouraged,” “discouraged” or “no opinion expressed.” The Security Council Report research group says the polls test which candidates are viable.

No date has been set for a seventh poll. Secretary-General António Guterres’s term ends Thursday, Dec. 31, and diplomats told PassBlue they expected the process to move faster. PassBlue reported that weaker candidates were expected to withdraw and that Lana Nusseibeh and Courtenay Rattray were rumoured as possible names. It also reported that U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz said member states retained the right to nominate candidates and that Washington preferred to complete the selection during the calendar year. The United States hasn’t publicly disclosed how it voted. It and China served as the two tellers for the sixth poll.

Much remains unknown. Nobody knows whether any permanent member will cast a negative vote in a formal Council vote, whether new candidates will enter, or when the next poll will happen. If the Council does recommend a candidate, the General Assembly must still make the appointment. Security Council Report said there’s no straightforward precedent for what happens if the Council can’t agree.

Polymarket prices reported on Oct. 17 at 2:22 a.m. ET gave Grynspan a 49% chance of becoming secretary-general, Grossi 19% and Rodrigues Birkett 13%. The market had traded about US$226,000.

Why This Matters:

The secretary-general leads an organization of 193 member states, yet the Charter gives five of them decisive say over who can be recommended. A candidate can win nine encourage votes and still be stopped. The rules build in that asymmetry, while secret straw polls keep the public and most member governments from seeing who blocks whom or why. Reporting, not official disclosure, produced the leaks that did surface. With Guterres’s term ending Dec. 31 and no precedent for a Council deadlock, the stakes are practical: a stalled process risks a leadership gap at a body that coordinates multilateral responses. Regional calls, including CELAC’s, show that many governments want rotation and representation weighed alongside great-power preferences.