Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica led the sixth U.N. Security Council straw poll for secretary-general on Friday, Oct. 16, earning nine “encourage” votes. But two of the five permanent members discouraged her, a warning that a veto could await in the formal vote. The secret, informal poll may look like a lead. The Charter says otherwise.
No veto was cast. Straw polls are informal, and a permanent member’s “discourage” ballot isn’t a veto. Still, diplomats read that kind of signal closely, and Grynspan acknowledged it. She told reporters in Costa Rica that no one knew for certain how members voted in the secret ballot. She said she’d try to reverse the two negative votes.
The Tally
PassBlue, an independent news site covering the United Nations, published the figures on Oct. 16. Costa Rican outlets Nación and Monumental reported the same numbers for Grynspan: nine “encourage,” five “discourage” and one “no opinion.” According to PassBlue, three permanent members encouraged her and two discouraged her.
Her margin is thin. Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana drew eight encourage and six discourage votes. Rafael Grossi of Argentina got the same tally, according to Nación. For the first time, the Council used colour-coded ballots: the five permanent members voted on a different colour from the 10 elected members. That lets observers see where the real power sits.
Where the Power Sits
Article 97 of the U.N. Charter says the 193-member General Assembly appoints the secretary-general “upon the recommendation of the Security Council.” The 15-member Council handles the gatekeeping. Article 27 requires nine affirmative votes on substantive matters, including the concurring votes of permanent members. PassBlue and the Costa Rican outlets said a recommendation needs at least nine encourage votes and no objection from a permanent member.
China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States hold those permanent seats. The other 10 seats rotate among elected members. A permanent member’s “discourage” is read as a warning of a possible formal veto. Positions can still shift in later polls or the formal vote.
The Council doesn’t publish results. Its president only announces that a poll took place, while figures from earlier rounds leaked and appeared online. That opacity has a cost: the public, and the governments that fund the institution, learn the state of the race from leaks rather than from the body choosing the secretary-general.
A Slow Process, a Hard Deadline
The presidents of the General Assembly and Security Council opened the selection with a joint letter on Nov. 25, 2025. They invited governments to nominate candidates and requested vision statements and funding disclosures. Straw polls began July 30, followed by rounds on Aug. 21, Sept. 18, Sept. 29, Oct. 7 and Oct. 16. Each member gets a ballot for each candidate with three choices: “encouraged,” “discouraged” or “no opinion expressed.”
Seven candidates remain, and none withdrew after the Oct. 7 poll: Grynspan, Grossi, Rodrigues Birkett, María Fernanda Espinosa, Ivonne A-Baki, Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Macky Sall. Espinosa and A-Baki are from Ecuador and were nominated by Antigua and Barbuda and Tonga, respectively. Burundi nominated Sall, while Uganda nominated Otunnu.
No date has been set for a seventh poll. Secretary-General António Guterres’s term ends Thursday, Dec. 31, and diplomats told PassBlue they expected the process to move faster. PassBlue reported that weaker candidates were expected to withdraw, while Lana Nusseibeh and Courtenay Rattray were rumoured as possible new names. It also reported that U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz said member states retained the right to nominate candidates, and quoted him saying Washington preferred to complete the selection during the calendar year. The United States and China served as the two tellers for the sixth poll. The United States hasn’t publicly disclosed its vote.
Regional Politics
On Oct. 13, the regional bloc CELAC asked that a Latin American or Caribbean national be selected. PassBlue reported that Panama supports Grossi and says the region is due its turn. Rotation arguments carry weight in New York, but the Charter’s vote threshold says nothing about geography.
Much remains unknown. It isn’t clear which two permanent members discouraged Grynspan. Nación reported that PassBlue cited an anonymous diplomat on the issue, but Grynspan disputed the account and no authority has confirmed it. No one knows whether a permanent member would cast a negative vote in a formal ballot, whether new candidates will enter or when the next poll will occur. If the Council recommends someone, the General Assembly must still make the appointment. Security Council Report said there’s no straightforward precedent for what happens if the Council can’t agree.
Polymarket prices reported at 2:22 a.m. ET on Oct. 17 gave Grynspan a 49% chance of becoming secretary-general, Grossi 19% and Rodrigues Birkett 13%. The market had traded about US$226,000.
Why This Matters:
The secretary-general runs an organization funded by member governments, and the people writing those checks have a stake in who’s chosen. The Charter gives the five permanent members a built-in check, and this poll shows it at work: a candidate with nine votes still faces two permanent-member warnings. For Washington, that’s leverage that matters, since a candidate who can’t clear a permanent-member veto can’t take the job. The calendar adds pressure. Guterres’s term ends Dec. 31, and no seventh poll is scheduled. A stalemate would leave the Council without a precedent to follow, according to Security Council Report. Candidates’ funding disclosures, requested in the original joint letter, are the closest thing to a transparency measure in a process otherwise run on secret ballots and leaks. Whoever emerges will inherit an institution whose leadership selection remains largely out of public view.
- united nations
- security council
- secretary-general selection
- rebeca grynspan
- veto rules
- general assembly
- straw poll
- antónio guterres