Israel still controls most of Gaza and won't withdraw its soldiers until Hamas' disarmament has been verified. Hamas wants a different arrangement: gradual disarmament, rather than the immediate surrender of its arsenal. That divide lies at the heart of the stalled ceasefire that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed Monday, on the eve of the third anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
"It is time for the ceasefire to become permanent. It is time to allow humanitarian assistance at scale. And it is time to respect international law," Guterres said in a statement. He also called for a "political path to lasting peace across the whole region."
The Security Picture
Guterres called the Hamas attack "abhorrent." He said it killed more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals and involved the taking of 251 hostages. Israel's current position rests on those facts.
A brief ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump in October 2025 "brought some relief," Guterres said. But he acknowledged that it "has yet to deliver security, adequate humanitarian assistance or a credible path to recovery and peace." Security tops his own list of what remains missing.
Israel's condition is straightforward. Its soldiers stay until officials verify Hamas' disarmament. Hamas, the group behind the attack, hasn't agreed to hand over its weapons on those terms; instead, it has offered a gradual process of its own design. The disagreement leaves a permanent ceasefire without a mechanism to hold.
Gaza's Civilian Toll
Guterres said Palestinians in Gaza had endured a "massive loss of life, displacement and destruction," but he gave no death toll. "Their suffering, too, demands an end, now," he said.
The Palestinian Health Ministry, which operates under Hamas' authority, says Israel's military campaign has killed more than 74,200 people. According to the report, the United Nations deems the ministry's figures reliable. The ministry doesn't distinguish combatants from civilians in the figure cited, and it answers to the same organization that launched the war.
A Wider War
Gaza isn't the only front anymore. Since the 2023 attacks, Israel has carried out operations on several fronts. These include an invasion of southern Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, an Islamist movement backed by Tehran, and a war against Iran launched in late February alongside the United States.
That context shapes Israel's calculations. Hamas isn't acting in isolation, and its demand for gradual disarmament comes as Tehran-backed forces are already engaged on Israel's northern border.
Guterres ended his statement with a hope that the anniversary would "mark not only another year of mourning, but also a renewed determination to build a different future: one in which Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side in peace and security, with their rights, dignity, and aspirations fulfilled."
The statement didn't explain how Hamas' arsenal would be verified or removed. Nor did it set out what the UN would do if Hamas refuses.
Why This Matters: A ceasefire without verified disarmament leaves the group that carried out Oct. 7 with the means to try again. That's the logic behind Israel's refusal to withdraw, and it isn't arbitrary. Guterres' own words point to the problem: the October 2025 truce delivered no security. Israel is also fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Iran alongside the United States, so any pullback from Gaza carries risks beyond Gaza itself. Calls for a permanent ceasefire will keep running into the same obstacle until Hamas accepts verifiable disarmament.