UnitedHealth Group raised its 2026 profit forecast Tuesday, even as membership fell in parts of its health insurance business, including Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans. The company reported higher operating income and improved margins while hundreds of thousands of people left employer-sponsored coverage and Medicaid. Since the end of 2025, 935,000 members had exited its Medicare Advantage business.
Profit Up, Membership Down
UnitedHealth now expects adjusted profit per share of at least $20.50 in 2026, up from its previous forecast of at least $19.50 to $20. The new forecast also tops analysts’ estimate of $19.86, according to LSEG data. The company said restrained medical-cost spending in its insurance business and improved margins in clinical care supported its outlook.
In the third quarter, UnitedHealth earned $4.69 per share on an adjusted basis, compared with $2.92 a year earlier and an average analyst estimate of $4.14. Revenue reached $112.69 billion, above analyst expectations of about $111.4 billion. Shares rose 2.1% to $386.61 in early trading.
UnitedHealthcare, the insurance business, brought in $86.3 billion in revenue, down from $87.1 billion a year earlier. Earnings from operations and profit margins still rose. The company credited benefit changes, pricing, and controls on medical and operating costs for the gains.
Attrition reduced membership in UnitedHealthcare’s employer-sponsored plan business by 165,000 people. Eligibility changes led another 85,000 people to leave Medicaid rolls. UnitedHealth operates Medicaid plans for low-income Americans on behalf of state governments and Medicare Advantage plans for adults aged 65 and older. Those numbers come on top of the 935,000 members who have exited its Medicare Advantage business since the end of 2025.
How the Company Cut Medical Costs
UnitedHealth reported a third-quarter medical cost ratio of 88.4%, down from 89.90% a year earlier and below analysts’ estimates. The ratio measures the percentage of insurance premiums spent on medical care. UnitedHealth credited plan design and new product pricing for the improvement. It also said a $610 million reserve benefit lowered costs, reflecting lower-than-expected claims for services provided earlier this year.
This year, the company exited some health insurance products and named new top executives after missing financial estimates last year. Third-quarter operating income rose to $6.6 billion from $4.3 billion in the year-ago quarter, largely because operations improved in Optum Health, its clinical unit.
UnitedHealth said investments in technology, including artificial intelligence, reduced the overall costs of providing medical services. Optum also left less favorable contracts for certain health plans that had weighed on first-quarter earnings. Last year, the company said regulatory and cost challenges represented an $11 billion blow to the unit over three years.
Wall Street Looks Ahead
For 2027, Chief Financial Officer Wayne Deveydt said UnitedHealth is targeting the lower end of its long-term growth-rate projection of 13% to 16% as a “reasonable starting point.” Wall Street analysts estimate earnings of $22.61 per share next year. “Current analyst consensus for 2027 may understate the opportunity ahead,” Deveydt said.
Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes called the quarter solid, adding that “the real highlight was the continued durability of the margin recovery story.” UnitedHealth operates health insurance businesses, clinical care businesses, pharmacy services and a pharmacy benefits manager. It’s been in turnaround mode for the past two years after one of the industry’s biggest cyber attacks, missed financial targets and a forced withdrawal of its outlook. The company also reeled after a top executive was killed outside its investor meeting in New York nearly two years ago. Its forecast and Wall Street’s projections track profits and margins; membership figures track people leaving plans.