UnitedHealth Group raised its 2026 profit forecast on Tuesday, even as it reported that hundreds of thousands of people had left parts of its health insurance business. The company pointed to restrained medical-cost spending and improved clinical-care margins, lifting its expected adjusted profit per share to at least $20.50 from a previous range of at least $19.50 to $20.
Enrollment moved the other way. UnitedHealthcare’s employer-sponsored health plan lost 165,000 members through attrition, while another 85,000 people left Medicaid rolls because of eligibility changes. Since the end of 2025, 935,000 members have exited UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage business.
Profit and membership
UnitedHealth reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share, up from $2.92 a year earlier and above the average analyst estimate of $4.14. Revenue reached $112.69 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of about $111.4 billion. Shares rose 2.1% to $386.61 in early trading.
The new 2026 profit forecast also exceeds analysts’ estimate of $19.86 per share, according to LSEG data. For 2027, Chief Financial Officer Wayne Deveydt said the company is targeting the lower end of its long-term growth-rate projection of 13% to 16% as a “reasonable starting point.” Wall Street analysts estimate earnings of $22.61 per share next year.
“Current analyst consensus for 2027 may understate the opportunity ahead,” Deveydt said. Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes said that while the company delivered a solid quarter, “the real highlight was the continued durability of the margin recovery story.”
Insurance costs and plan changes
UnitedHealthcare revenue, including its insurance business, fell to $86.3 billion from $87.1 billion a year earlier. Its earnings from operations and profit margins rose. The company credited benefit changes, pricing, and controls on medical and operating costs for the increase.
UnitedHealth reported a third-quarter medical cost ratio of 88.4%, below the year-ago figure of 89.90% and better than analysts’ estimates. The ratio measures the share of insurance premiums spent on medical care. UnitedHealth said plan design and new product pricing improved the figure. A $610 million reserve benefit also cut medical costs, reflecting lower-than-expected claims for services provided earlier this year, the company said.
UnitedHealthcare runs Medicare Advantage plans for adults aged 65 and older and Medicaid plans for low-income Americans on behalf of state governments. The reported enrollment changes include attrition from employer coverage, eligibility changes to Medicaid rolls, and Medicare Advantage members leaving.
Clinical operations and turnaround
UnitedHealth’s third-quarter operating income climbed to $6.6 billion from $4.3 billion a year earlier, largely because operations improved in its Optum Health clinical unit. The company said investments in technology, including artificial intelligence, lowered the overall costs of providing medical services. Optum also exited less favorable contracts for certain health plans that had weighed on first-quarter earnings.
UnitedHealth said last year that regulatory and cost challenges at Optum represented an $11 billion blow to the unit over three years. The company has spent the past two years in turnaround mode after one of the industry’s biggest cyber attacks, missed financial targets, and a forced withdrawal of its outlook. A top executive was killed outside the company’s investor meeting in New York.