U.S. gasoline prices surged back above $4 a gallon this month, a direct consequence of renewed air strikes against and by Iran, which have pushed global benchmark oil prices near $100 a barrel. This economic strain on American households comes as the U.S. economy shows fragile growth, heavily reliant on temporary stimuli and threatened by global conflicts.
S&P Global's flash services Purchasing Managers' Index did rise to 53.6 in July, marking the highest point since November, from 51.2 in June. Its Composite Output Index also climbed to an eight-month high of 53.6, up from 51.9 last month. Manufacturing growth, however, eased to its slowest pace since March, with the manufacturing PMI slipping to 53.8 from 53.9 in June.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that "U.S. businesses reported a good start to the third quarter," with data consistent with gross domestic product expanding at a 2.0% pace in the current quarter. Economists polled by Reuters see growth holding steady at 2.0%, roughly on par with the first-quarter pace of 2.1%. Yet, Williamson warned that "some of this improvement may prove short-lived as July saw hospitality spend boosted by the FIFA World Cup and USA 250 anniversary activities." The reliance on such fleeting events, both global and national, underscores a deeper economic vulnerability for the native population.
Elite-Driven Conflict's Toll
The "U.S.-Israeli-led war with Iran" is explicitly cited as a factor in the economic slowdown, particularly in manufacturing. Precautionary stock building eased amid this conflict. The recent resumption of air strikes has again shut down traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for global trade, directly impacting the supply chains that underpin the American economy. This globalist entanglement has tangible costs for the native working class.
This foreign policy decision has driven global benchmark oil prices from around $70 at the start of this month to nearly $100 a barrel. This translates directly to higher prices at the pump for American families, with average U.S. gasoline prices now exceeding $4 a gallon. These are not abstract figures; they are the daily burdens faced by ordinary Americans.
Fragile Growth, Rising Costs
Williamson expressed concern over manufacturing growth weakening, noting it was "worrying – though not unexpected." He observed a "concerning intensification of supply chain delays and accompanying renewed upturn in price pressures," which he stated are "constraining growth and subduing demand." New services business saw its fastest growth since November, but new order growth for factory goods fell to a four-month low. Employment expanded only modestly across both sectors.
Williamson concluded that "Events over recent days in the Middle East will have only further exacerbated these supply chain and price worries and raise downside risks to the near-term outlook for the economy, hinting that July’s upturn may not be the start of an improving trend." The future remains uncertain, dictated by distant conflicts and the globalist mechanisms that connect them to the American homeland.