President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Wednesday, even as negotiations continued between the United States, Iran and Oman and the sea lanes stayed dangerous for everyone else. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that the United States was involved in talks between Oman and Iran on increasing traffic through the strait. Axios reported that the three governments were nearing an interim deal, a 60-day arrangement for safe passage, with an announcement hoped for Wednesday. The machinery of state keeps moving. The people on the ships do not get much say.
The State Monopoly on the Strait
The deal under discussion has been negotiated for several weeks and is aimed at resuming the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and restarting negotiations over a nuclear deal. Trump said there was an all-day negotiation on Tuesday with Iran and described the talks positively. In California, he said negotiators "had a very good day" and that a deal to reopen Hormuz could happen "tomorrow or the next day." In an interview with Fox News, he put the logic in its bluntest form: "The strait is going to be open very soon, or they’re going to get hit very hard — and then the strait’s going to be open." He also said, "All you can do is fight your way out."
That is the language of state power stripped bare. Open the waterway, or threaten to smash things until it opens. The route itself becomes a bargaining chip between governments, while merchant crews and coastal communities live with the consequences.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "there is a chance we may have a deal" by Wednesday or Thursday. Trump had previously said he expected to know by Tuesday how the talks were going, "one way or the other," and insisted "it’s not very complex." He also said Washington’s diplomatic goals include reopening Hormuz and the denuclearization of Iran, which he accepted could "take a little while."
Ships, Blockades, and the People Caught in Between
The volatility was not theoretical. One crew member was listed missing Tuesday on a merchant ship hit by a projectile in Hormuz, while an Indian ship in the Red Sea sank following an unattributed attack. Early on Tuesday, Britain’s maritime security agency UKMTO said an unnamed cargo vessel had been struck by an "unknown projectile" in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. The sea lanes are being managed by armed actors, and ordinary crews are the ones left counting the damage.
Trump last week threatened to hit Iran "very hard," potentially with attacks against civilian infrastructure, then pulled back and hinted a deal was near. He previously called Tehran "duplicitous" for saying it was not negotiating, adding that a US counter-blockade of Iranian ports would remain "unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished." The phrasing leaves little room for anything outside submission or force. That’s the state system in a nutshell.
Iran’s foreign ministry has denied negotiations with Washington, even as Trump insisted they were happening. Qatar, which has been mediating negotiations, said diplomatic efforts were ongoing but that no direct Iran-US talks were planned. Its leader, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, spoke with Trump by phone on Tuesday, and Doha said they discussed efforts to de-escalate tensions. The mediators, the denials, the threats, the counter-threats — all of it runs through governments, with everyone else expected to absorb the shock.
More than five months into a war that has cost Washington billions of dollars, Iran remains able to fire missiles and drones at US and allied targets in the region, as well as at commercial shipping. Iran continues to impose an effective blockade on the strait and insists ships coordinate crossings with it. The disruptions in Hormuz have placed greater importance on shipping lanes through the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu has enabled shipments to global markets by circumventing Hormuz entirely.
Since the Houthis announced their blockade, they have claimed attacks on multiple ships they say are in violation. On Tuesday, the Indian ship MSV Faize Noore Oliya sank in the Red Sea off Yemen following an unattributed attack, with all of its crew rescued. The Red Sea is a gateway to the Suez Canal, and a previous campaign of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels during the Gaza war forced shippers to take lengthy detours around the southern tip of Africa.
The pattern is familiar. Armed authorities declare blockades, issue threats, and negotiate corridors, while crews, cargoes, and coastal people pay the bill. The flags change. The monopoly on force doesn’t.