President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Wednesday as negotiations continued between the United States, Iran and Oman, more than five months after Iran imposed an effective blockade on one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Tuesday that the United States was involved in negotiations between Oman and Iran on increasing traffic through the strait. Axios reported that the three parties were nearing an interim deal and hoped to announce it Wednesday.
The Proposed Framework
Citing unnamed regional officials and a US official, Axios said the deal on the table would be a 60-day arrangement for safe passage in the strait between Iran and Oman. The deal has been under negotiation for several weeks and is aimed at resuming the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and restarting negotiations over a nuclear deal.
Trump characterized Tuesday's all-day negotiation with Iran positively. He said in California that negotiators "had a very good day" and that a deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz could happen "tomorrow or the next day." In an interview with Fox News, he said, "The strait is going to be open very soon, or they're going to get hit very hard — and then the strait's going to be open." He also said, "All you can do is fight your way out."
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "there is a chance we may have a deal" by Wednesday or Thursday.
Iran's Contradictory Messaging
Iran's foreign ministry has denied negotiations with Washington, even as Trump insisted they were happening. Trump previously called Tehran "duplicitous" for saying it was not negotiating, adding that a US counter-blockade of Iranian ports would remain "unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished."
Qatar, which has been mediating negotiations, said diplomatic efforts were ongoing but that no direct Iran-US talks were planned. Its leader, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, spoke with Trump by phone on Tuesday, and Doha said they discussed efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Trump had previously said he expected to know by Tuesday how the talks were going, "one way or the other," but insisted "it's not very complex." Washington's diplomatic goals include reopening Hormuz and the denuclearization of Iran, which Trump accepted could "take a little while."
The Strategic Reality
More than five months into a war that has cost Washington billions of dollars, Iran remains able to fire missiles and drones at US and allied targets in the region, as well as at commercial shipping. Iran continues to impose an effective blockade on the strait and insists ships coordinate crossings with it.
Underlining the volatile situation, one crew member was listed missing Tuesday on a merchant ship hit by a projectile in Hormuz, while an Indian ship in the Red Sea sank following an unattributed attack. Early on Tuesday, Britain's maritime security agency UKMTO said an unnamed cargo vessel had been struck by an "unknown projectile" in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman.
Trump last week threatened to hit Iran "very hard," potentially with attacks against civilian infrastructure, then pulled back and hinted a deal was near.
The Wider Maritime Crisis
The disruptions in Hormuz have placed greater importance on shipping lanes through the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu has enabled shipments to global markets by circumventing Hormuz entirely.
Since the Houthis announced their blockade, they have claimed attacks on multiple ships they say are in violation. On Tuesday, the Indian ship MSV Faize Noore Oliya sank in the Red Sea off Yemen following an unattributed attack, with all of its crew rescued. The Red Sea is a gateway to the Suez Canal, and a previous campaign of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels during the Gaza war forced shippers to take lengthy detours around the southern tip of Africa.
Why This Matters:
The Hormuz negotiations reveal the limits of military pressure against a regional power willing to absorb economic costs to maintain strategic leverage. Iran's ability to sustain attacks on commercial shipping and US targets more than five months into the conflict demonstrates that Washington's counter-blockade hasn't forced Tehran's capitulation. The proposed 60-day deal would represent a temporary de-escalation, not a resolution — Iran's nuclear program would remain intact, its proxy networks operational, and its capacity to reimpose the blockade unchanged. Meanwhile, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea show how Iran's regional proxies can open new fronts that complicate any bilateral agreement. If the deal collapses, the administration faces a choice between an open-ended military commitment or accepting Iran's effective veto over global energy transit. The strategic question isn't whether a deal gets announced Wednesday — it's whether any arrangement short of regime change can guarantee freedom of navigation through waters Tehran considers a pressure point against the West.