Americans’ confidence in the economy fell again in August as gasoline prices stayed above $4 per gallon and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 89.4 from 90.2 in July. The reading was the lowest in seven months. For people living under the daily grind of prices set far above what wages can comfortably absorb, that’s the headline. The board’s own numbers show a public still trapped in the same lukewarm range it has held since the beginning of the year, after late 2024 and early 2025 readings that were consistently above 100.
Who Pays for the Price Shock
The Conference Board said respondents’ views of their present situation improved, but their short-term outlook soured. That split matters. The present may feel slightly less brutal to some, but the future still looks like a bill coming due. Write-in responses collected from Aug. 3 to Aug. 16 were slightly more pessimistic this month, and references to prices in general, along with oil and gas prices specifically, remained elevated. Comments about war and geopolitics, food prices, trade and jobs rose in August. The survey captures what the people at the bottom are actually dealing with: a squeeze that doesn’t care about campaign slogans or polished talking points.
The ongoing conflict in Iran continued to push U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. Americans remain frustrated with the economy after five years of elevated inflation, and that frustration is now being measured as a political risk to President Donald Trump and Republicans in the midterm elections, which are less than 70 days away. The machinery of electoral politics is already trying to absorb the anger, translate it into a horse race, and move on.
The Election Trap
Trump continues to blame high prices on his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, yet inflation has risen since Trump’s inauguration last year. That’s the familiar ritual: blame gets passed around at the top while ordinary people keep paying more at the pump and at the store. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, was up 3.7% in June from a year earlier. That was down from May’s 4.1% year-over-year increase, but up from 2.8% before the Iran war began on Feb. 28. It was 2.5% when Trump was inaugurated in January 2025. The government issues its July PCE data Wednesday.
The numbers keep moving, but not in a way that offers relief. Inflation eased from May to June, yet it still sat well above the level before the Iran war began and above where it stood when Trump took office. That’s the reality behind the official back-and-forth: prices remain high, and the state’s preferred gauges still show pressure on households that don’t get to set the terms.
Jobs, Labor, and the Bottom Line
Consumers’ views of the current labor market improved in August, with 27% saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from 24.4% in July. But the outlook darkened. Just 14.6% expected more jobs to be available over the next six months, down from 16.4% last month. People can see the gap between what exists now and what’s coming next. They’re not wrong to be wary.
The U.S. job market stalled unexpectedly in July as employers cut 23,000 jobs. Labor Department revisions erased 103,000 jobs from previously reported May and June payrolls. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but for the wrong reason: Thousands of people dropped out of the labor market, leaving fewer people competing for work. That’s the kind of improvement that only looks good from far above. On the ground, it means fewer jobs, fewer options, and more people pushed out of the count altogether.
The Conference Board’s survey, the inflation figures, and the labor data all point in the same direction. Prices stay high. Work stays unstable. The people making the decisions keep their distance while everyone else absorbs the cost.