Wall Street made $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, while the U.S. trade deficit reached $105.6 billion in August. The figures expose a growing divide: financial firms posted record gains as the gap in goods trade widened. Profits rose 51% from the same period a year earlier, helped by AI spending, trading and dealmaking. Imports hit a record $420.8 billion, including increased purchases of petroleum, gold and chips used for artificial intelligence.
Record gains, concentrated in finance
The New York State Comptroller's latest report said securities-industry profits could top $90 billion for the year if they keep pace, surpassing previous records as well as the inflation-adjusted record set in 2009. In May, the New York City comptroller's office had forecast $45.3 billion in Wall Street earnings for all of 2026. The industry cleared that estimate in six months.
Trading stocks, bonds and currencies helped lift profits, as did fees for advising on client investments, underwriting initial public offerings and a rise in mergers and acquisitions. “Investment in AI companies continues to drive the market,” Thomas P. DiNapoli, New York State Comptroller and author of the report, wrote. AI-related venture-capital spending reached $407 billion in the first half of 2026, more than 50% above the full-year total of $264 billion in 2025.
Underwriting revenues, including IPO fees, climbed 68% year over year in the first half. Anthropic, described as a powerhouse AI company that could be valued at $2 trillion, is expected to go public this year, potentially bringing Wall Street banks fees. DiNapoli also said the industry gained from a business-friendly administration in the White House.
Employees and city tax receipts saw the gains at markedly different scales. In New York City's securities industry, average annual pay, including bonuses, rose 11.1% to $561,770 in 2025. The bonus pool reached $49.2 billion, equal to an average bonus of $246,900 per employee, up 6% from the previous year. The industry's share of New York City tax collections increased 15.8% in fiscal 2026. “Commensurate with record industry profitability, tax collections related to securities continue to reach new levels,” DiNapoli wrote.
Trade deficit and tariff authority
The August trade deficit climbed 13.7% from the previous month, reaching a 17-month high. Imports rose 4.3% to $420.8 billion, while exports gained 1.4% to $315.2 billion. Companies have bought more expensive computer chips, most of which are made in Asia, as they build data centers, helping push imports higher.
President Trump sees the deficit as a sign of a weak manufacturing sector. His administration has tried to reduce it with tariffs on products including toys, steel, drones and auto parts. Yet the deficit has kept trending upward in recent months. Many economists question whether tariffs can bring it down, arguing that wider forces such as economic growth and government debt often shape the balance.
The administration's tariff policies have shifted over time. After Trump was elected, importers stocked up ahead of tariffs, pushing the deficit to historic levels in the first few months of his term. Imports and the deficit dropped after he introduced global tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day” last year. The Supreme Court struck down most of those tariffs in February; the administration then turned to other legal authorities to replace some. In July, it imposed a new round on more than 80 countries and planned another that could cover more than 40 countries.
Costs and risks beyond the headline figures
Consumer sentiment stayed low as people worried about the cost of living, rising energy prices and persistent food inflation. On Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.35%, its highest level since 2002. Higher bond yields have pushed up borrowing costs for mortgages and auto loans, and could weigh on economic activity, stock markets, IPOs and dealmaking. DiNapoli said the recent increase “may dampen profitability” if dealmaking slows or firms' interest liabilities rise significantly.
The report listed bond-market volatility, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, interest rates, the AI sector's large contribution and the administration's deregulatory push among the risks. DiNapoli wrote that “the potential for an industry downturn presents an increasing risk to public finances and the broader regional economy.”
Second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 2.2% annualized rate from 1.5%, and the jobless rate stood at 4.2%, a level consistent with an economy considered to be at full employment. Those figures came alongside widespread dissatisfaction in opinion surveys with President Donald Trump's economic performance and the broader state of the economy. Explanations cited included concerns about inflation and interest rates, federal debt topping $40 trillion, worsening climate conditions, and the prospectus for the year's most-anticipated IPO warning of “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.”