Sen. Mitch McConnell’s extended absence from Congress has thrown Kentucky’s Senate succession rules into the open, with Gov. Andy Beshear and Secretary of State Michael Adams now fighting over who gets to decide what happens if the seat becomes vacant.
The dispute flared Aug. 3 after Beshear pushed back on claims that a key election deadline could limit his options if McConnell’s seat opens later this year. That argument drew a sharp response from Adams and exposed a familiar kind of institutional scramble: the people at the top debating procedure while the public is left to watch a vacancy become a legal chess match.
Who Holds the Seat, Who Holds the Power
Beshear addressed the rumors in a post on X, saying a date some observers saw as significant under Kentucky’s Senate vacancy law carries “no legal impact” if McConnell’s seat becomes vacant later this year. Under Kentucky law, a vacancy in the U.S. Senate is filled through a special election called by the governor. The winner serves the remainder of the senator’s term, while the seat stays vacant until election results are certified.
Kentucky’s law requires the governor to issue a proclamation calling the election, but legal experts told CNBC the statute does not set a firm deadline for when that proclamation must be issued. Once it is, counties and candidates must meet a series of filing deadlines before voters can head to the polls. That’s the machinery: deadlines, proclamations, filings, and a seat that remains empty until the apparatus says otherwise.
Beshear has suggested the state’s 2024 special-election-only law could conflict with the Kentucky Constitution. He has pointed to Section 152, which says statewide vacancies are filled by gubernatorial appointment, raising questions about whether a Senate vacancy could trigger a legal challenge. The fight centers on who gets to decide how a vacant Kentucky Senate seat is filled.
The Legal Trap They’re Arguing Over
Beshear has suggested Kentucky’s Constitution may give him the power to appoint a temporary replacement if a vacancy occurs. In a statement to The Courier Journal, part of the USA TODAY Network, Adams said the state law is clear: a Senate vacancy must be filled through a special election, and the governor has no authority to appoint a senator.
Adams wrote, “His [Beshear’s] irresponsibility in suggesting the Kentucky Constitution empowers him to violate state law and appoint a federal officeholder — to an office that is not even vacant — has fed the sort of online conspiracy theories I’ve spent my career combatting.”
The disagreement remains hypothetical because McConnell has not resigned and his seat is not vacant. But his prolonged absence has already forced the state’s political class to talk openly about succession, vacancy, and who gets to control the process when power suddenly needs a replacement.
McConnell has not appeared in the Senate since being hospitalized in June after a fall and pneumonia diagnosis. He last voted on June 11, 2026, and according to Govtrack.US, he has since missed 46 roll call votes as well as votes on the annual defense policy bill, legislation related to Iran and confirmation proceedings for several high-profile Trump administration nominees.
His office has released few details about his recovery. In a July 27 statement, McConnell said he remained in “intense physical therapy” and would miss Kentucky’s annual Fancy Farm picnic, one of the state’s top political events.
Primaries, Maps, and the People Left to Choose
Five states hold primaries Tuesday, with competitive House and Senate races that could ultimately decide control of Congress next year. Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington are all holding contests. A number of Democratic primaries are pitting congressional incumbents against progressive challengers, and redistricting efforts will also influence the races.
Missouri Republicans redrew their map to squeeze Democrats, while Virginia moved its primary from June to August for a Democratic redistricting push that courts ultimately threw out. The maps, the deadlines, the court fights — all of it shows how much of electoral life gets managed from above before a single voter marks a ballot.
In Michigan, retaining an open Senate seat is seen as a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the chamber next year. Voters there will decide between two millennial Democrats vying to run against the likely nominee, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, this fall. The Senate primary has become a test of how candidates farther left on the political spectrum will fare outside liberal cities where they have swept elections this fall.
Rep. Haley Stevens flipped a suburban House seat in 2018 and served on the team President Obama tasked with rescuing the auto industry during the Great Recession. She has pledged to fight Trump and has focused on her support for Michigan manufacturing. Her opponent is epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed, former health director for Detroit and later Wayne County. El-Sayed lost a primary for governor against Whitmer and hosted a public health podcast. His platform includes embracing Medicare for All and cutting the influence of corporate money in politics, and he has slammed the millions being spent against him by the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC.
Stevens has the money advantage and has outspent El-Sayed on the airwaves by at least eight times, according to AdImpact, including groups aligned with AIPAC. El-Sayed is leading the polls for the primary contest. Haley supporters argue that she has a better chance of winning in a purple state in November’s general election.
Michigan is a true swing state. Joe Biden won Michigan in 2020, and Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2024, the latter election even as Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly won an open Senate seat that had been held by Democrats.
Another test of the Democratic Party’s direction will be in Michigan’s 13th House District, which covers most of Detroit. Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, the multimillionaire businessman, is running against state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a progressive Detroit native. McKinney has the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Rashida Tlaib and has made Thanedar’s wealth and corporate ties the center of his more left-leaning campaign. Republicans are fielding a handful of low-profile candidates, but according to Cook Political Report, whoever wins the Democratic primary is heavily favored in November.
In Washington’s conservative 4th Congressional District, rated as solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, the top three Republican candidates are representative of three different arms of the party. Amanda McKinney, the Yakima County commissioner, has an endorsement from President Trump. Businessman and former candidate Jerrod Sessler has campaigned as the anti-establishment outsider. Republican state Sen. Matt Boehnke is more moderate. Tuesday’s decision in the primary, where the top two candidates proceed regardless of party, will reflect the direction Republican voters have chosen for a rural, heavily Latino district that subsists on agriculture and energy production.
In Missouri, the solid blue 1st Congressional District that includes St. Louis is hosting another one of this cycle’s marquee Democratic primaries on Tuesday between current Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush. Bell defeated Bush two years ago, and now they are both back for a fiery rematch. Whoever wins this race, where apart from local issues military aid to Israel has also been a big point of contention, will likely go on to serve in Congress. Bush has said she would vote to cut off military aid for Israel, while Bell has voted against those moves. Bell is backed by Democrats like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while Bush is supported by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Seven other congressional districts in Missouri will hold primary races to pick candidates Aug. 4, under a new map the Republican-led Legislature passed that reshaped Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City-area seat.
Back in Michigan, a governor’s seat is in play because term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leaving it open in a state President Trump carried in 2024. Tuesday’s margins and turnout will offer the first signals about Democratic and Republican enthusiasm heading into November. The Democratic front-runner is Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state since 2019. Benson’s priorities are the economy and the public education system, she told Michigan Public Radio, while her competitor, Chris Swanson, the current Genesee County sheriff, said he would focus on an audit of the state women’s prison, on curbing energy price hikes and on giving Epstein victims a voice.
In the Republican primary, Rep. John James, the 2018 and 2020 Senate nominee, has Trump’s endorsement, though Perry Johnson, a businessman and author, is proving to be tough competition. Johnson’s priorities include eliminating the state income tax, making property taxes less onerous and improving the quality of the state’s education programs, he told Michigan Public Radio. The House majority is likely to come down to a handful of tossups, including Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, where three Democrats, including Will Lawrence, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, are running to take on first-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett.
Virginia’s Election Day was pushed from June to August this cycle after a congressional redistricting referendum and an effort to change the maps by the Democrats; the attempt was overturned by the Virginia Supreme Court on technical grounds, but the later date stayed in place. Michelle Moffit, a director at Virginia Civic Engagement Table, a non-partisan, non-profit that works to protect voting rights, said she expects more participation from voters because of the Louisiana v. Callais decision and how it could have impacted Virginia. “I think more people are aware of what’s at stake and how precious the right to vote is,” she said. Voters will pick nominees for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House on Tuesday, including in a few competitive swing districts in Virginia that could help decide control of the narrowly divided chamber in November.
A crowd of Democratic candidates are competing in a primary in Kansas on Tuesday for a Senate seat, according to Kansas Public Radio. The winner will challenge Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November. Kansas’ gubernatorial and House races also have contests between establishment candidates and outside challengers, to match the national trend, in both Republican and Democratic primaries.