Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, denied that Washington was negotiating a secret arrangement involving Eritrea, even as the US stepped up its diplomatic attention to Eritrea, Ethiopia and Egypt, three states entangled in disputes over regional security, Nile waters and access to the Red Sea. The denial came with the usual polished language of empire management. The machinery keeps moving. The public line just says it’s all for peace.
The State Talks Peace, the States Move Pieces
"The Trump administration continues to pursue regional peace through diplomatic engagements with Egypt, Eritrea, and Ethiopia," Boulos said on X. He added, "Let me be unequivocally clear: claims that we are negotiating or considering any secret deal involving Eritrea against another regional partner are categorically false. No such agreement exists, and no such arrangement is under discussion." He did not identify the regional partner, though the wording appeared to refer to Ethiopia. The statement was a denial, but also a reminder that Washington is actively working the region through state-to-state channels, not through anything resembling popular control.
The US diplomatic outreach has drawn scrutiny because Eritrea sits on the Red Sea with more than 1,000km of coastline, a position that gives it strategic weight along one of the world’s most important maritime routes. That geography has become more valuable as tensions rise around Red Sea security, including threats to shipping from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. The people who live along these routes get the consequences. The states get the leverage.
Boulos has previously engaged with Eritrean officials as part of efforts to improve ties. He has also held discussions with Egyptian leaders as Cairo has played a role in facilitating contact between Washington and Asmara. The choreography is familiar: governments talk to governments, and the public is told the result will be stability. What gets stabilized, more often than not, is the diplomatic order itself.
Old Wars, New Alignments
Speculation among regional observers has grown that Eritrea could become part of a broader alignment involving Egypt and other countries concerned about Ethiopia’s growing regional influence. Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000 before restoring diplomatic relations in 2018. Relations later deteriorated after Eritrea’s involvement in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict and continuing disagreements over regional security and Red Sea access. The border war ended 26 to 28 years ago, but the state logic that produced it never really left the room.
Ethiopia has also remained locked in a dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cairo has warned about potential impacts on downstream water supplies, while Addis Ababa views the project as vital for development. Two governments, two national interests, one familiar script: each claims necessity, each frames its own project as survival, and ordinary people are left to absorb the fallout if the calculations go wrong.
Boulos said Washington’s engagement with the three countries was aimed at "advancing lasting peace and stability throughout the Horn of Africa." He also criticized what he described as false claims and speculation about alleged regional agreements, warning that such allegations could undermine diplomatic efforts. The line is tidy. The region is not. Diplomatic efforts here mean more meetings among officials, more strategic hedging, and more competition over maritime routes, water, and influence.
The Trump administration has in recent months placed greater emphasis on the Horn of Africa, where competition over Red Sea influence, maritime security and unresolved conflicts has drawn growing international attention. Eritrea’s diplomatic relations with Ethiopia were restored in 2018, 8 years ago, after years of hostility. Since then, the region has kept offering the same lesson in different uniforms: states do not end rivalries so much as rearrange them, and the people below are expected to live with the arrangement.