The United States and Iran have less than 60 days to negotiate a permanent end to the war, but they still appear to be at odds over the interim deal they reached this month. That deadline hangs over a process run by presidents, envoys, mediators and state media, while ordinary people in the region are left to live with the consequences of decisions made behind closed doors. It’s not even clear when the two sides will meet again.
Kazem Gharibabadi, a senior Iranian negotiator, posted Monday on X: "The situation is sensitive and complex." U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media Monday, "IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!" Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Monday, "There are no negotiation meetings with the U.S. side at any level scheduled in the coming days." Three statements. Three versions of the same state-managed fog.
The State Monopoly on the Table
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Monday that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, were flying to Qatar to meet with the Iranians and that technical negotiations would occur on the sidelines. Later, Iranian state media cited Baghaei as saying an expert delegation will travel to Qatar this week but with no planned U.S. meetings. Pakistan, a key mediator along with Qatar, has said talks would resume Tuesday. The machinery keeps moving, even when the people running it can’t agree on whether the meeting exists.
The U.S. and Iran have a roughly mid-August deadline to reach a permanent peace deal including an agreement on Iran’s disputed nuclear program. What’s ahead are technical talks involving lower-level diplomats before any return to the table by top negotiators. Mediators are eager to get going. There’s plenty to discuss, including arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions waivers on Iran and the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The language is clinical. The stakes are not.
The deal says fighting must stop before further negotiations. After the exchange of fire over the weekend, Iran on Sunday threatened a "complete halt" in talks. On Monday, both sides appeared to pause their attacks. Tehran may be waiting to see if that holds. The pause is fragile, because these arrangements are built on armed force first and diplomacy second.
Who Controls the Waterway
The Strait of Hormuz is open, according to the interim deal. Iran insists it must govern the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday, "Any attempt to establish new or separate arrangements from those currently being carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran will only lead to further complications, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and increase the level of tension." That’s the language of a state defending its own authority over a chokepoint, not a people deciding freely how to move through it.
The interim deal says Iran should immediately facilitate commercial shipping through the strait that lies between it and Oman. It says Iran can work with Oman and other Persian Gulf countries to administer the waterway in line with international laws ensuring freedom of navigation. Iran says shippers must use its designated routes and coordinate with its authorities. It has objected to a new route overseen by the U.S. that runs along Oman. That sparked the fighting over the weekend.
The Trump administration is operating on the understanding that the U.S. and Iran are standing down and vessels can move freely through the strait, a U.S. official said Monday on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Ships have begun transiting again, but traffic is still below prewar levels. The waterway reopens on paper; the fear remains in the water.
Lebanon as Another Bargaining Chip
Iran says fighting must stop everywhere and Israel must withdraw from Lebanon before moving ahead on other issues. Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said Saturday that linking Israel’s withdrawal to Hezbollah’s disarmament is a "very dangerous suggestion." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon "until Hezbollah and the rest of the terrorist organizations are disarmed, and until no further threat to Israel is posed from Lebanon." Each side speaks the language of security while keeping armed men in place.
A separate set of U.S.-brokered talks have been held between Israel and Lebanon’s government. Iran says its interim deal with the U.S., which calls for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon, requires Israel to withdraw. But a separate U.S.-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel allows Israeli forces to stay in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah has been disarmed. Hezbollah was not part of those talks and has rejected that deal. The pattern is familiar: governments negotiate over territory and force, while the people most exposed to the consequences are absent from the room.
Hezbollah attacked Israel two days after it and the United States attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Israel responded with aerial bombardment and a ground invasion. Israel has vowed to keep forces in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah’s threat is eliminated. Lebanon’s government does not have the capacity to disarm Hezbollah by force. Sporadic clashes continued in Lebanon over the weekend, and that could delay Iran’s return to the negotiating table. The diplomats keep talking. The guns keep their own schedule.