U.S. President Donald Trump promised "major military punishment" for Iran and its Houthi allies after the Yemeni fighters struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, widening a war already chewing through shipping routes and civilian risk. He said on social media, "If they do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves." The language is blunt. The machinery behind it is blunter.
The State's Monopoly on the Sea
The U.S. military said late on Thursday it completed its latest round of strikes on Iran, marking a 13th consecutive night of American attacks. The latest strikes lasted more than two hours, according to the U.S. Central Command, which said in a statement: "CENTCOM targeted Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities to further diminish the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz." That’s the official script: protect mariners, bomb infrastructure, repeat. The result is a region where armed states and armed factions treat shipping lanes like leverage and everyone else eats the bill.
Trump also told Axios he was considering re-launching major combat operations in Iran and was close to a decision, and the news outlet quoted him as saying, "They haven't received enough pain yet." On social media, he said "any and all damages done" to cargo ships would be paid for with "Iranian Money," referring to frozen Iranian assets held by the United States, but he did not say how. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi responded on X, saying, "Seizing another nation's assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent." He added on Friday, "No one's assets were safe once governments normalised such confiscation," and said, "Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful."
Rulers, Proxies, and the People Caught Between
The Houthis, who control northern and western Yemen, said they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, which has diverted millions of barrels of oil each day by pipeline to the Red Sea to skirt Iran's blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis said their forces had carried out missile and drone strikes on the Saudi oil tankers Encelia and the Layla. A maritime security source said the Encelia sent a distress call that it had been struck by a missile near the Saudi port of Jizan in the Red Sea just north of Yemen on Wednesday. Saudi state news agency SPA said the strike caused a fire at the bow. Reuters could not immediately confirm the attack on the Layla, or other battlefield accounts, but Trump mentioned two attacks on Saudi tankers.
The U.S. military said the strikes came after the Houthis said they had struck the two tankers on Thursday. That’s the loop now. One armed authority hits another, each claims necessity, and the sea becomes a hostage. The people who move cargo, fuel, and food don’t get a vote in any of it.
Fears that disruption could widen to block another sea route sent global oil prices surging in one of the steepest rises of the war. Brent crude rose more than 6%, piercing the level of $100 a barrel for the first time since May. Two weeks since the effective collapse of an interim truce meant to end the war, the U.S. military launched air strikes on Iran late on Thursday and early on Friday, for a 13th consecutive night of attacks, prompting Iran to fire at neighbouring Arab countries that host U.S. bases. On both Thursday and Friday nights, Iranian state media said missiles struck Qeshm Island on the Strait of Hormuz, the virtually closed waterway that is the focus of a war well into its fifth month that has killed thousands and fanned fears of a global economic downturn. Four people were killed and five injured in a U.S. missile attack on the Iranian city of Ahvaz, state broadcaster IRIB said.
Chokepoints, Retaliation, and the Price Tag
Iran said it attacked U.S. missile systems, weapons and fuel storage sites in Jordan, as well as U.S. military posts in Kuwait. Jordan's army said it engaged four Iranian missiles and six drones in the past day, intercepting all but one missile, which fell in an uninhabited area. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they struck a U.S. electronic warfare unit at Al-Adiri base in Kuwait, causing unspecified casualties, in response to an overnight strike on Iran's Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Neither the United States nor Kuwait has reported casualties at the base. Iranian military spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said Iran would keep retaliating as long as the U.S. continued to attack its infrastructure and coastal areas, Iranian state TV reported.
Daily vessel transits of the Strait of Hormuz were steady at three for each of the past three days, according to preliminary shiptracking data, amid continuing shipping risks in the Middle East and as oil prices surged back to $100 a barrel. Three vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day from July 22 to July 24, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. On Friday, one more laden very large crude carrier, Romania Prosperity, appeared off Fujairah outside the strait with Murban crude, though its destination was so far unknown, and two empty soft commodity bulk carriers exited the strait into the Gulf. On Thursday, VLCC New Giant, loaded with 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude, exited the strait and was due to arrive at China's Rizhao port by mid-August. Another two ships, including empty VLCC Noble, also entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
At Bab el-Mandeb, another choke point got dragged into the same logic. Commodity vessel transits totalled 32 on July 23, up from 26 the day before, Kpler data showed, with two crossings for July 24 so far. Of the crossings on Thursday, 14 vessels were going into the Red Sea and 18 were exiting the strait into the Gulf of Aden. Out of the 18 ships exiting Bab el-Mandeb, nine were carrying crude oil, including two loaded Chinese supertankers bound for China. Separately, the clean tanker Torm Innovation, loaded with around 500,000 barrels of naphtha bound for Asia, made a slight turn for the Suez Canal exit instead of a typical Bab el-Mandeb exit, Kpler and LSEG shiptracking data showed. Rerouting ships via the Suez Canal to Asia instead of via the Bab el-Mandeb strait could make the voyage last nearly three times as long, regional trade sources said. Saudi Aramco has started offering additional crude cargoes loading at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir as a workaround from loading at its Red Sea ports.
The war keeps finding new bottlenecks. States keep calling it security.