While national figures are touted, a third of American cities surveyed recorded an increase in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. This stark reality contradicts the broader narrative of declining crime rates presented by the Council on Criminal Justice in its report released Thursday.
The Council on Criminal Justice report, drawing data from 30 American cities, claimed an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 to 2026, translating to approximately 215 fewer homicides this year. If this trend holds, the report suggests the annual homicide rate could fall to its lowest levels in over a century once final numbers are compiled.
Yet, the same data reveals a more complex picture for the native working class in many communities. The report tracked 13 crime categories, noting drops in nine, including carjackings and residential burglaries. However, it also documented small increases in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses over the same period, indicating a persistent erosion of public order in other areas.
The Narrative Control
Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, offered a sweeping generalization, stating, "Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity." His statement suggests a universal improvement, ignoring the specific communities suffering increased violence.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago, provided the academic establishment's preferred explanations. He cited decreased drug usage, fewer purchases from illegal markets, and a significant influx of federal funding for localities after the pandemic. These funds, Roman explained, were spent on social programming, creating jobs for teachers and social workers who primarily work with "young people who are the highest risk of violence and victimization."
Roman's analysis notably downplays alternative explanations. He acknowledged that conservative politicians affiliated with President Donald Trump would point to intensified immigration crackdowns and the deployment of the National Guard in cities like Los Angeles and Memphis. Meanwhile, liberal politicians might credit former Democratic President Joe Biden's public safety legislation, which strengthened background checks on firearm sales. The academic preference for federal social programs as the primary driver of change highlights the elite-driven approach to public safety, often at the expense of local self-determination.
Cost to Communities
The human cost of this managed decline is evident in the cities defying the national trend. Norfolk, Virginia, experienced a staggering 64% increase in homicides. San Francisco, a hub of transnational elite interests, saw its homicide rate surge by 55% during the same period. These are not mere statistics; they represent lives lost and communities destabilized.
Furthermore, some cities have seen their safety decline significantly over a longer term. Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis recorded more homicides in 2026 than in the same period in 2019, seven years ago, before the pandemic. This indicates a sustained failure to protect these communities, even as the official narrative focuses on overall declines.
Residential burglaries, while down 13% year over year, remain a concern for homeowners, though they have fallen 50% compared with pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Shoplifting, however, rose 5%, impacting local businesses and the sense of security in commercial areas. Drug offenses, while lower than pre-pandemic levels, still contribute to the fragmentation of communities. The Council on Criminal Justice, an independent body, continues to shape the public understanding of crime, often obscuring the localized crises facing the native population.