Who Holds the Levers
The United States and Iran ended face-to-face talks on Sunday without an agreement, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire in doubt and exposing once again how ordinary people are left to live with decisions made by armed states and their negotiators. Neither side said what happens after the 14-day ceasefire expires on April 22, while Pakistani mediators urged all parties to maintain it.
U.S. officials said the negotiations collapsed over what they described as Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning a path to a nuclear weapon. Iranian officials blamed the U.S. for the breakdown of the talks without specifying the sticking points. Both sides said their positions were clear and put the onus on the other side, the usual ritual of power talking past itself while everyone else waits for the fallout.
Vice President JD Vance said after the 21-hour-long talks, “We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who led Iran in the negotiations, said it was time for the United States “to decide whether it can gain our trust or not.” He did not mention the core disputes in a series of social media posts.
What the Negotiators Said
The Associated Press reported that the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement at the end of historic, face-to-face talks after the U.S. said Tehran refused to commit to not developing a nuclear weapon, leaving uncertainty over a fragile, two-week ceasefire. AP said negotiations began between the United States and Iran in Pakistan, days after a fragile, two-week ceasefire was announced.
A U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and an Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf each met with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif earlier Saturday. AP said the ceasefire brokered by Pakistan still faced hurdles as Israel and Hezbollah militants traded fire along the border of southern Lebanon and Iran set conditions before negotiations could begin. AP said the high-level talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives marked the first such meeting since the war began more than a month ago.
An Iranian diplomatic official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the closed-door talks, denied that negotiations had failed over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “Iran is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, but it has the right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” they said, reiterating Iran’s longstanding negotiating position. There was no word on whether talks would resume, though Iran said it was open to continuing the dialogue, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.
Who Pays for the Breakdown
AP reported that since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, it has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 2,020 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, and caused lasting damage to infrastructure in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries. Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz has largely cut off the Persian Gulf and its oil and gas exports from the global economy, sending energy prices soaring.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said his country will try to facilitate a new dialogue between Iran and the U.S. in the coming days. “It is imperative that the parties continue to uphold their commitment to cease fire,” Dar said. AP said the deadlock and Vance’s take-it-or-leave-it proposal that Iran end its nuclear program mirrored February’s nuclear talks in Switzerland. Though President Donald Trump has said the subsequent war was meant to compel Iran’s leaders to abandon nuclear ambitions, each side’s positions appeared unchanged in negotiations following six weeks of fighting.
A 60-year-old Mohammad Bagher Karami said in downtown Tehran, “We have never sought war. But if they try to win what they failed to win on the battlefield through talks, that’s absolutely unacceptable.”
Bloomberg reported that the failure of the U.S.-Iran talks was set to weigh on market sentiment and lift demand for safe-haven assets on Monday, according to analysts. Bloomberg said the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement during talks in Pakistan, which was likely to disappoint investors who had added exposure to risk assets last week after the countries announced a ceasefire. Bloomberg said Vice President JD Vance said negotiators would return to the U.S. without a deal after Iran didn’t give a commitment it wouldn’t seek a nuclear weapon. Bloomberg also said the dollar was expected to rise on Monday after falling 1.4% last week, along with oil prices, according to analysts.