The U.S. and Iran are preparing for talks this weekend in Pakistan as the long-term fallout of the war in Iran keeps rippling across the Middle East, leaving alliances strained, energy routes disrupted and ordinary people stuck with the bill for decisions made at the top. The ceasefire is tenuous, Iran’s theocracy is battered but still standing, and the region is now being rearranged by military power, economic leverage and election-season calculations in Washington, Israel and beyond. **Who Gets Crushed First** In Lebanon, the war’s toll is already visible in the most basic terms: displacement, death and more uncertainty dressed up as diplomacy. The article says the Israel-Hezbollah war has displaced more than a million people and killed nearly 1,900, and it continues for now. Lebanese and Israeli officials have agreed to enter direct negotiations, with Lebanon hoping for a ceasefire and Israel hoping for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Lebanon wants a halt to Israeli strikes before the talks start, a condition Israel is unlikely to agree to. Most analysts believe Lebanon does not have the capacity to disarm Hezbollah by force or enforce any ceasefire agreement that Hezbollah does not agree to. The U.S. and Israel are at odds with Iran over whether their ceasefire extends to the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. That dispute leaves the people in Lebanon waiting while the powerful argue over the terms of their suffering. Netanyahu said the negotiations would also include talks about a potential peace agreement between the two countries, which do not have diplomatic relations. **Power at the Top, Costs Below** In Iran, the article says the country was battered by nationwide protests in January and heavy airstrikes in the war, but suddenly found itself in a position of power. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has used the threat of sea mines and possible attacks to keep ships away from the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the waterway crucial for international energy shipments. Even with a ceasefire in place, Iran’s new control of the Strait of Hormuz through threats alone means Gulf states still are not able to get their energy shipments to market. Iran’s government has also put forward maximalist demands ahead of the Islamabad talks, including continuing to enrich uranium in its nuclear program, one of the chief reasons Trump gave for going to war. The article says Iran has more than 400 kg, about 900 pounds, of uranium enriched near the level needed to make a bomb. It also says Iran reportedly possesses missiles and drones capable of hitting neighboring countries. At the same time, Iran’s military sites now sit in ruins, its missile arsenal broadly depleted, and the threat of more protests by its people still looms. The article says unrest could be spurred by the destruction in Iran’s oil and gas industry, as well as attacks targeting steel mills and other economic sites. That is the hierarchy in plain view: the machinery of war and sanctions hits the infrastructure first, and the people underneath are left to absorb the damage. **What They Call Stability** In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would get an “incomplete” if graded for the war, according to the article. He set ambitious goals at the outset of the fighting on Feb. 28, saying he wanted to remove the threats posed by Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and its support for hostile proxy groups. He also vowed to create the conditions for a popular uprising against the Iranian government. None of those goals were fully achieved. In a televised address after the ceasefire, Netanyahu acknowledged “we still have goals to complete,” but said there had been “immense achievements.” He said, “Iran is weaker than ever, and Israel is stronger than ever. This is the bottom line of this campaign.” The article says Israelis overwhelmingly supported the war against Iran, especially in the early days, but later grew tired as nonstop air-raid sirens disrupted daily life and sent people scrambling into bomb shelters around the clock. Netanyahu is hoping the U.S. will shore up battlefield gains into a permanent agreement that guards Israel’s interests, and he must also ensure his relationship with President Donald Trump remains strong after an inconclusive war that was deeply unpopular in the U.S. Otherwise, the article says, Netanyahu could struggle for his job when his war-weary nation heads to the polls. The election cycle appears here not as a remedy, but as another round of elite management after the damage is done. The article also says the U.S. and Israel will hold elections this year, and their leaders could face voters after falling short of their war aims. That is the familiar ritual: the same apparatus asks for another mandate after the bombs, the shortages and the displacement. **Markets, Alliances and the Rest of the Bill** The war has also strained the NATO alliance, which was already under pressure. Trump has repeatedly tested the 32-member alliance, cutting off direct U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, threatening to take the Arctic territory of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, and cajoling members to spend more on defense. His differences with NATO allies over Iran are raising new questions about whether the alliance, created as a curative to post-World War II instability, can survive. Trump has derided allies as “cowards,” slammed NATO as “a paper tiger” and compared U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain, the former premier known for a policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany. Trump is angry at member countries ignoring his call to help as Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, and at alliance members Spain and France restricting the use of their airspace or joint military facilities by U.S. forces supporting operations in Iran. Trump said the moment is “a mark on NATO that will never disappear.” The war has also hit the U.S. economy. Trump won back the White House promising to curb inflation, bring down prices and trigger a jobs boom, but the war has done the opposite, raising gas prices, leaving stock markets reeling and sending shockwaves through the economy as the labor market weakens and inflation begins rising anew. The article says none of that is good for Republicans trying to keep control of Congress with November’s midterms looming. Trump initially tried to calm economic fears by visiting swing states, but he first scoffed at affordability worries as a hoax and then stopped those trips altogether as the war consumed his administration. On energy prices and markets, the conflict has largely shut down the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil travels, and has damaged oil and gas production facilities across the Middle East. Brent crude oil, the international standard, went from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to more than $119 at times. Brent rose 0.7% to $96.58 Friday. Prices at the pump have jumped as well, reaching about $4.15 a gallon in the U.S., up from just under $3 before the conflict began. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in February and the biggest yearly increase since May 2024. The article says the surge in gas prices will stretch the budgets of lower- and middle-income households. The U.S. and Iran are set to sit down in Pakistan while the region remains unsettled, sanctions and leverage still hang over the talks, and the people most exposed to the fallout continue to live with the consequences of decisions made by states, militaries and ruling cliques.
