Americans' confidence in the economy plummeted in July as gas prices surged again, a direct consequence of escalating U.S. and Iranian conflict. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June. This figure remained within the same stagnant range observed since the year began, a stark contrast to readings well above 100 in late 2024 and early 2025.
Consumer attitudes had shown a slight improvement in June when gas prices dipped to around $3.70 a gallon. That temporary relief followed a period in late April and early May where prices exceeded $4.50 a gallon. However, as fighting intensified in the Middle East, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. climbed back to $4.10 on Tuesday, according to AAA.
Imperial Conflict's Domestic Cost
Iran's decision to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil, came after it was attacked by the U.S. and Israel in late February. This retaliatory action immediately triggered a spike in gas prices. The resulting inflation has systematically eroded Americans' inflation-adjusted incomes, a clear mechanism of surplus extraction from the working class.
After five years of elevated inflation, Americans remain deeply pessimistic about the economy. This widespread discontent poses a significant risk to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections, now less than 100 days away. Trump has consistently attempted to deflect blame for inflation onto his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.
Inflation has, in fact, risen since Trump’s inauguration last year, climbing from 3% in January 2025 to 3.5%. It jumped even further after the Iran war began on February 28, when it stood at just 2.4%. These figures reveal the direct economic burden placed on workers by imperial adventures.
Wage Suppression Deepens
Write-in responses to the Conference Board's survey, collected from July 1 to July 22, reflected persistent pessimism. While mentions of gas prices were slightly down, they remained high. Crucially, respondents' concerns about food and grocery prices increased, highlighting the daily struggle for subsistence.
Government data confirms that buying food to bring home has become 33% more expensive since the beginning of 2019. To cope with these soaring costs, working families have resorted to couponing, comparison shopping, and cutting back on essential foods. They are absorbing the largest jump in grocery prices in a half-century, a testament to the ongoing wage suppression.
Beef prices exemplify this crisis. A pound of ground beef reached $6.82 in June, an astounding 79% increase compared to the beginning of 2019, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This disproportionate rise in basic necessities reveals the true cost of capital's priorities.
References to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly this month, and views of the current job market declined. While expectations for the labor market six months out improved marginally, they remained in negative territory. U.S. employers slowed hiring last month, adding only 57,000 jobs—less than half the previous month’s total. The unemployment rate supposedly declined to a low 4.2% from 4.3% in May, but this drop primarily occurred because many workers, disillusioned by the lack of opportunity, gave up looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed. This statistical manipulation masks the true precarity of the labor market.
Mentions of war and geopolitics decreased this month in the survey. However, the Board acknowledged that the recent escalation in fighting between Iran and the U.S. could cause those mentions to rise in the next survey, indicating a growing awareness among the populace of the connection between imperial policy and their economic hardship.