Oil prices ticked higher Tuesday as traders became less confident that a diplomatic solution was in sight for the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.09% to $82.02 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 2.8% at $86.11 a barrel.
President Donald Trump declared the latest round of negotiations with Iran the "last chance" to end the ongoing conflict. He told reporters in the Oval Office late Monday that talks were "going on right now" at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and others. Earlier Monday, Trump described Iran's leaders as "unbelievably duplicitous" in a Truth Social post, accusing them of lying about peace talks that were underway, "whether Iran wants to admit it or not." He insisted, "This is a last chance for them to sign a good document."
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei rejected the notion of direct negotiations with the United States. Baghaei stated at a press conference Monday that no immediate plan for U.S. negotiations exists. Tehran, he said, is currently only engaged in talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed Tuesday that Tehran would continue to defend its borders but did not seek an expansion of the conflict, according to state media reports.
Capital's Gains Amidst Conflict
Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted in a Tuesday report that traders were pricing "only a moderate risk premium despite still very high uncertainty about Mideast supply." They projected Brent crude would remain in its "$80-90 range until either a confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran deal or a significant escalation in attacks and targets." This market assessment reveals capital's expectation of sustained profit from regional instability.
The State's Imperial Hand
U.S. Central Command announced Monday it had redirected 44 commercial vessels as part of its ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were disabled, and two others were boarded. CNBC reported that traffic through the strait remained largely slow, with six vessels—three tankers and three bulk carriers—transiting Monday, a decrease from seven the previous day. A ship was struck in the Hormuz Strait, further escalating regional tensions and reinforcing the perception of stalled diplomacy. An Iraqi pro-militia outlet, Naya, reported late Monday that an explosion in Kuwait overnight could be heard in Basrah Province.
The Material Cost of Empire
Reuters separately reported that the United States had used virtually all of its long-range precision missiles in the five-month war with Iran. This depletion raises concerns about the military readiness of the imperial garrison for future conflicts. The ongoing projection of military and economic power in the region continues to extract a material cost, even as it secures conditions for capital accumulation through rising energy prices.