US Midterms Leave Latin America Under Washington's Thumb

On Nov. 3, Americans voted for all 435 seats in the House, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Yet decisions in Washington over trade, remittances and immigration funding remained with the institutions that set those rules. Congress writes trade, aid and immigration-funding laws affecting Latin America and Africa, while the executive branch controls tariffs. People across Latin America hoped the midterms could weaken President Donald Trump's political power and change Washington's approach to the region, the Associated Press reported.

The vote brought no immediate change to policies already in force. At the time of the Rio Times report, polls hadn't closed, and no results existed. Reported prediction markets showed probabilities, not results: Polymarket priced a Democratic House win at 94.5% and a Democratic Senate win at 76.5%, as of 4:32 a.m. ET.

The rules stay with Washington

The House needed 218 seats for a majority. Republicans held 53 of the Senate's 100 seats, while Democrats and their two independent allies held 47. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats to reach 51, because the vice president breaks 50-50 ties. Two Senate contests, in Ohio and Florida, were special elections for seats vacated in January 2025.

A change in congressional control wouldn't let one chamber unwind policy on its own. Both chambers and the president must approve a law, and overriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber, a threshold neither party held. A Democratic House could hold hearings and use spending bills to question tariffs and deportation funding, but it couldn't remove either alone; the Senate and president would also have to agree.

The duties already applied. Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on 60 economies took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on July 24, 2026. The U.S. Trade Representative's notice set Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru at 12.5%; Mexico fell in the 10% tier, with exclusions for some products. The report said the duties would remain whoever won the midterms.

A 1% U.S. tax on cash remittances has applied since Jan. 1, 2026, under the 2025 budget law, Public Law 119-21. Bank account and card transfers are exempt, so the tax mainly applies to cash senders. Repeal would require both chambers and the president.

Representation and its limits

In California, Xavier Becerra, the Mexican-American Democratic Party candidate for governor, urged supporters to keep organizing. “When we started, we were underdogs. But you believed in us, made calls, and showed up at every stop. Farm workers and firefighters, teachers and tradesmen, small business owners and service workers: this campaign belongs to you. Tomorrow is Election Day. Let's finish this together. Vote!” Becerra posted Nov. 3. If elected, he would become the state's first elected Latino governor; polls indicated he was likely to defeat Republican Steve Hilton.

President Claudia Sheinbaum applauded Becerra and said around 39 million Mexicans and Mexican-Americans live in the United States, calling their political representation “very good.” The campaign's calls and appearances made participation visible, but the election couldn't erase tariff and remittance rules already set through federal power.

Sheinbaum declined to weigh in on the congressional races or what a Democratic takeover of both houses might mean for Mexico and the USMCA. “We don't express an opinion,” she said. “The election is today. It's not our place to comment today.” She added, “... We're going to wait for the result and we're going to respect the result whatever it is.” Mexican and U.S. officials continued trade talks over differences that contributed to the Trump administration's decision not to renew the USMCA free trade pact for an additional 16 years.

A border dispute above local control

Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said the Texas General Land Office had identified nine islands along the Rio Grande as state property. In Oct. 26 letters to the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas Military Department, Buckingham said the office had “not been alerted to criminal activity on these ... islands,” while also citing “previous experience” with their “exploitation” by cartels and smugglers.

Sheinbaum said the Texas government couldn't decide ownership; the International Boundary and Water Commission must determine whether the islands lie on the Mexican or U.S. side. “If it's half and half, it's half and half,” she said, adding that she believed Texas' determination was electorally motivated. Mexico's Foreign Affairs Ministry said the border “cannot be modified by a decision of a state government” and that the commission applies the treaty criteria to determine which side of the boundary each island lies on.