Who Holds the Levers
High-level U.S.-Iran talks on their interim deal to end the war got off to a tense start Sunday in Switzerland after President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran and told Iran's president to watch what he says. From the start, the machinery of state power was on display: threats from afar, social media bluster, and negotiations over nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz and billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Vice President JD Vance and mediators Pakistan and Qatar were trying to keep Iran at the table while Tehran bristled at the comments and said the talks had entered a "difficult phase."
Iranian state media said the delegation recessed after the "publication of an insulting message by the U.S. President." The Iranian delegation then met with Qatari mediators and left the negotiating site, state media said. An official with knowledge of the talks later told the AP the Iranian delegation remained engaged in the talks and has not indicated to mediators any intention to leave. The official requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.
The People Paying the Price
The negotiations are centered on issues with massive implications for the world economy and global security, but the immediate pressure lands on ordinary people through war threats, shipping disruptions and the freezing of assets. The U.S. wants Iran locked into negotiations over its nuclear program amid concerns it may be used for military purposes, which Iran denies. Vance also wants Tehran to commit to keeping open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran on Saturday claimed to close. The U.S. has disputed that, saying shipping traffic continued Sunday.
Iran dealt two quick blows to the interim agreement on Saturday, angered by Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon, saying it had closed the Strait of Hormuz and announcing that while its negotiators were going to Switzerland for talks, not much is likely to happen there. Before anything, however, Iran wants to discuss Lebanon, where Israel's military has been fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, since the deal halts conflict on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told the state news agency that Tehran first wants talks to focus on the conflict in Lebanon.
A renewed ceasefire in Lebanon, brokered on Saturday, appeared to be holding, and Israel's military said it would lift movement restrictions for residents near the border with Lebanon on Monday morning. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah is a signatory to the U.S.-Iran deal, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep his forces in southern Lebanon until any threat to Israel is eliminated. Hezbollah has refused to halt attacks unless Israel commits to withdrawing.
What the Deal Hands Over
The agreement signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian immediately allows Tehran to sell its oil freely and paves the way for Iran to tap into billions of dollars in assets that are currently frozen. A member of Iran's negotiating team told state television that draft wording was reached about "temporary sanctions waivers for oil and petroleum derivatives." The agreement also calls for Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, believed to be buried under nuclear sites that were targeted in U.S. strikes a year ago.
Pezeshkian, however, declared Sunday that "we will never back down from the right to enrich uranium, and the other side is also forced to accept it," according to Iran's state media. Trump, in a telephone interview with Fox News, later warned that the Iranian president should watch what he says and threatened to take over Iran, in comments relayed by a Fox correspondent. Iran had cautiously approached the talks given its previous experience with U.S. negotiations on the nuclear issue, which twice in the past year were interrupted by military strikes.
Vance said he planned to be in Switzerland for "a day or two," leaving much of the detailed negotiations to be led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. His role in the talks has heightened scrutiny at a time when he's considering a 2028 presidential campaign. Trump and Vance have come under searing criticism from parts of their own party for the deal, with Republican hard-liners unfavorably likening it to the nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration that Trump and Republicans have insisted did nothing to terminate Iran's nuclear program.
The new agreement says commercial vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days without charge, but does not preclude future fees imposed by Iran. Trump made his own threat Saturday to levy U.S. tolls if there is no deal with Iran in 60 days, insisting that the money would be for "services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East." The Trump administration has been working to reassure global markets that the war has been merely a blip on oil prices, as Americans complain about high gasoline prices ahead of peak summer travel. After the deal was announced, oil futures dropped almost 8%. Markets are expected to closely track the progress of talks when they open for trading Sunday evening.