The US military has burned through more than 60% of its most critical air defense missiles during recent weeks of intensified conflict with Iran, leaving the nation's ability to respond to threats from China or North Korea in question, according to a new analysis and three sources familiar with Pentagon data.
A Monday report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found fewer than 827 Patriot interceptors and fewer than 278 THAAD ballistic missile interceptors remain in US arsenals. Before the war, the stockpile stood at roughly 2,200 Patriots and 452 THAAD missiles. Three sources who requested anonymity confirmed the CSIS figures align closely with internal government counts.
The Human Cost of Depleted Defenses
Each interceptor costs millions of dollars, but the strategic consequences cut deeper than budget lines. "Diminished stockpiles may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions," the CSIS authors wrote. "There are no good alternatives to Patriot and THAAD for ballistic missile defense."
Those risks aren't theoretical. NBC News reported that US commanders, desperate not to waste their dwindling interceptor missiles, now choose not to shoot down Iranian projectiles heading toward unpopulated areas of bases in the region. It's a stark shift from practices during a June 2025 Iranian missile wave against Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, when US-manned Patriot batteries defended the mostly evacuated installation.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told senators last week that without additional funding, the Pentagon will "not get the munitions" it needs. President Donald Trump said aboard Air Force One on Monday that he wanted to replenish "the more sophisticated stuff," but insisted inventories are "in very good shape."
Years of Underinvestment Come Due
Lawmakers from both parties acknowledged the crisis extends beyond any single administration. Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said in a hearing 8 days ago, "The shortfalls in munitions have been well known to this committee for some time. While these munitions shortfalls have been years in the making, they are growing increasingly urgent."
The report's lead author, retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian, told CNN earlier this month that continued fighting with Iran could deplete stockpiles so severely it would hamper the US military's ability to fight China or even North Korea.
CNN reported that Caine cited the munitions shortage during a Friday meeting with Trump, when the president weighed a major escalation. Trump announced a pause in strikes against Iran after the briefing. That pause proved fleeting. On Tuesday, US and Saudi forces conducted joint strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq, and the US military announced it intercepted a "surprise attack" by Iran on US forces in the Middle East.
Production Can't Keep Pace
The Defense Department has accelerated interceptor missile production in recent months, including two deals inked this week to boost Patriot and THAAD rocket motor manufacturing. But a spokesperson declined to say when the expansion will yield results. Analysts say it could take years to fully replenish high-end munitions like Patriot missiles because of production lead times.
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a July 28 statement that the military "is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing." He added that the military "has executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests."
Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have largely blamed former President Joe Biden's administration for the shortages. Hegseth told Senate appropriators last week that the Biden administration "took munitions one-for-one and sent them to Ukraine and had tried to replace them with the same bureaucratic process that was too slow and didn't replace them in real time."
The Pentagon's pending supplemental funding request includes several provisions related to the stockpile.
Why This Matters:
The depletion of America's missile defense arsenal exposes the consequences of decades of underinvestment in defense industrial capacity and the strategic cost of military engagements without clear endpoints. When commanders must choose which incoming missiles to intercept based on ammunition scarcity rather than threat assessment, service members face elevated risks. The shortage also constrains America's ability to support allies or respond to aggression in multiple theaters simultaneously, a cornerstone of US defense strategy. With production timelines stretching years into the future, the gap between current stockpiles and operational needs represents a vulnerability that adversaries can exploit. Bipartisan acknowledgment that these shortfalls transcend any single administration underscores the need for sustained public investment in defense manufacturing infrastructure, not just emergency appropriations after crises emerge. The question isn't whether the US can afford to rebuild these stockpiles, but whether it can afford not to.